A FEW POP UP STORMS EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND
We've seen a couple of stray storms pop up near Paris in Northeast Texas this afternoon…and most storms that pop up today will tend to be northeast and east of the Metroplex. We have a very humid airmass in place, but little in the way of upper level triggers…so widespread rain is not expected this evening or tonight. Overall rain chance less than 20%.
Low: 64° Wind: S 5-10 mph.
A weak cold front will sag south from Oklahoma and Arkansas into North Texas during the day Wednesday. This will provide more of a focus for a few more storms to pop up closer to the Metroplex on Wednesday. Still not expecting anything widespread, with the lack of an obvious upper level disturbance. Otherwise it will still be a warm, humid day. Our severe weather chances will also remain small…but a few storms could have some hefty downpours, along with gusty winds and some lightning. Rain chances: 20-30%
High: 82° Wind: SE 10-15 mph.
THURSDAY & FRIDAY
The weak front will move back into Oklahoma and Arkansas on Thursday, leaving North Texas without any focus for thunderstorm development. We will keep the isolated, pop up storms in the forecast with the heating of the day. Storms will form in West Texas each day along the dryline and try to move east into North Texas, but should weaken as they do so. As low pressure begins to strengthen across the Rockies, our winds will pick up out of the south and become quite gusty both days. Overall rain chance: 20%
Lows: 63-68° Highs: 79-82° Wind: S 15-30 mph.
RAIN CHANCES PICKING UP THRU THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY
A large low pressure system in the upper levels of the atmosphere will carve itself out across the western U.S. over the weekend and begin to send weak disturbances closer to our area on Saturday. A dryline/cold front combo will ease in from the west and trigger more thunderstorms by Saturday afternoon. It appears at this time that the best chance of storms will be in our western half of North Texas, closer to the upper level dynamics. The rest of the area is forecast to have a pretty stout cap, which should preclude more widespread storms. Overall rain chance: 30-40%
Low: 68° High: 81° Wind: S 20-30 mph.
SUNDAY & MONDAY
These will be the wettest two days in the 7 day forecast. The strong upper level storm system will make its move to the east toward Texas. This will send the dryline/cold front farther east across North Texas and trigger widespread showers and thunderstorms. This system will be slow-moving and there is a potential for heavy rainfall across a good portion of North Texas Sunday and Monday. Some locations could pick up 2-3" of rainfall and some storms have a chance to become severe with large hail, damaging wind, and possibly a few tornadoes. This has already been a very wet Spring, so any additional heavy rainfall could quickly lead to more flooding problems early next week. Overall rain chance: 50-70%
Lows: 63-67° Highs: 75-78° Wind: S 15-30 mph.
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