Report Estimates 1 In 194 Coloradans Currently Infectious With COVID

DENVER (CBS4) - A new modeling report shows that if the B.1.1.7 variant of the COVID-19 virus spreads rapidly in Colorado, high levels of transmission control and vaccination will be critical to avoiding another large surge in cases. The B.1.1.7 variant now accounts for 10% of all cases in the U.S. Infectious disease experts predict it will the predominant form of the virus by mid-march.

The variant was first identified in the U.K. before spreading to the U.S. It is now confirmed in 45 states, starting in Colorado. Scientists believe the COVID-19 variant is more contagious but not more severe in symptoms.

Just this week, a new "5.15.26" variant emerged in New York City. It's still unclear if this new variant is more infectious or causes more hospitalizations. Doctors say, as far as they know, the current COVID-19 vaccines still protect against the new strains of the virus.

Colorado health officials confirm 100 cases of the B.1.1.7 variant in the state. In addition, 54 cases are under investigation as possible variant cases.

The latest modeling report estimates 1 in 194 Coloradans is currently infected with COVID-19. Scientists predict if Colorado stays on the current trajectory, hospital demand and cases will continue to decline. It could take more than a month before hospital demand and infection rates are comparable to last summer, officials said.

However, if the B.1.1.7 variant spreads rapidly in Colorado, scientists said we could see another peak in hospital demand. Officials acknowledge that vaccine distribution will increase the level of protection if there is a surge in variant cases.

The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment updates COVID-19 data each day at covid19.colorado.gov/data. To read the state's latest modeling report, click here.

COVID-19 Data as of 4 p.m. Friday: 

Vaccines (Phase 1A & 1B):

• 878 Total Vaccine Providers
• 856,874 People Immunized with One Dose
• 439,712 People Immunized with Two Doses
• 1,406,475 Cumulative Doses Distributed
• 1,298,160 Cumulative Doses Administered

Testing:

• 39,228 tests conducted on Feb. 25 with 3.45% positivity rate (7-day moving average)
• 3.02% daily positivity rate on Feb. 25

Hospital Data:

• 358 Patients currently hospitalized, 86% of facilities reporting (-16)
• 51 Patients under investigation for probable cases, not lab confirmed (+13)
• 59 Patients discharged/transferred in past 24 hours (+6)
• 8% Facilities anticipating staff shortages within next week (+0%)
• 1% Facilities anticipating PPE shortages within next week (+0%)
• 3% Facilities anticipating ICU bed shortages within next week (+1%)
• 28% Critical care ventilators in use (+0)

Case Summary:

• 426,198 cases (+1,521)
• 100 Variants of concern (+14)
• 54 Variants under investigation (+18)
• 23,438 hospitalized (+53)
• 2,565,792 tested (+7,357)
• 6,159,303  test encounters (+39,957)
• 5,940 deaths among cases (+15)
• 5,874 deaths due to COVID-19 (+14)
• 3,882 outbreaks (+12)