Spring weather outlook for Chicago, fewer extremes with more typical Midwestern ups and downs

Meteorological Spring officially begins Sunday, March 1, and Chicago has already enjoyed a beautiful preview. 

February brought several 60-degree days, a rare early taste of warmth that felt more like April or May than late winter. As La Niña continues to fade and we transition toward a more neutral pattern, the atmosphere should become a bit less locked into extremes and a little more typical of a Midwestern spring, which can still bring plenty of ups and downs.

Climatology is firmly on our side from here forward. Average highs climb from about 41 degrees on March 1 to 53 by April 1, then to a comfortable 65 by May 1. The warming trend really accelerates deeper into April as daylight increases rapidly. The Climate Prediction Center's outlook for March through May favors near-normal temperatures across the Midwest. That suggests we'll still see chilly stretches, but sustained spring warmth should gradually build as we head toward late April and May.

Rainfall also increases significantly through the season. March typically averages about 2.45 inches of precipitation, April jumps to 3.75 inches, and May climbs to 4.49 inches, making it Chicago's wettest month of the year on average. As temperatures rise and Gulf moisture becomes more available, rain events are more likely to include thunderstorms. Not every storm will be severe, but the ingredients for stronger systems become more common as we move deeper into spring.

Historically, severe weather ramps up across Illinois in April and peaks in May. In fact, tornado reports increase sharply during this stretch, and Illinois has seen notable spikes in recent years, even leading the nation in total tornado reports in both 2023 and 2025. 

Late spring is also when derechos, long-track damaging wind events, become more common. About 70 percent of all derechos occur between May and August, with June and July being peak months across the Midwest.

And don't forget the time change. We "spring forward" on Sunday, March 8 at 2 a.m., trading an hour of sleep for more evening daylight. Sunset that evening will be at 6:49 p.m., and by June 1, the sun won't set until about 8:19 p.m.

Warmer afternoons, turning greener, longer evenings — and yes, a few storms along the way. After highs in the 60s on Friday, spring isn't just arriving in Chicago, it's steadily gaining momentum.