Joe O's NFL Pick Six
Bears(3-1) @ Panthers(0-4) – noon
Carolina favored by 1
What a difference a Jay makes. Jay Cutler is more important to his team than any other athlete in this town. Bear fans will gladly take a 3-1 record in the first quarter of the season. The second quarter of the season starts in Carolina. Then, they face Seattle, Washington, & Buffalo. With or without Cutler, winning 3 of 4 in this stretch is a must before Sidney Rice returns and Brett Favre gets his timing right with Randy Moss in Minnesota. After last week's debacle, the Bears offensive line play will be crucial. The bad news is the Bears have allowed a league high 18 sacks, but the positive is the Julius Peppersless Panthers have sacked the quarterback only 4 times, tied for worst in the NFL with the Bears. In a quarterbacks league, Todd Collins vs Jimmy Clausen won't excite fantasy football players. Clausen improved in his 2nd start in New Orleans, but won't have Steve Smith to throw to. #10 Todd Collins is hoping for some good luck on 10/10/10, but the Bears haven't gotten their running game going & last week the G-Men went for almost 200. Carolina's rushing attack is led by DeAngelo Williams averaging nearly 5 yards a pop. Trends don't matter when the most dangerous offensive weapon for both teams are out. It's only a matter of time for winless teams in the NFL.
PICK: Panthers -1
Buccaneers(2-1) @ Bengals(2-2) – noon
Cincinnati favored by 6.5
Cincinnati finally had the offensive outburst they'd been waiting for. Last week, Carson Palmer threw for nearly 400 yards and Terrell Owens turned back the clock with 222 receiving yards. It didn't mean a damn thing. Cleveland beat the Bengals, 23-20. Cedric Benson is averaging nearly a full yard less per rush than last season. Surprisingly, Tampa has taken out Cincy 5 straight times over the last 15 years. The Bucs have been preparing for the Bengals for 2 weeks. The Bungles have lost 9 of their last 12 ATS. If the Browns can beat 'em, Tampa can keep it close.
PICK: Buccaneers +6.5
Giants(2-2) @ Texans(3-1) – noon
Houston favored by 3
In a domination in every phase of Sunday night's game against the Bears, the Giants won by 14. It felt like New York was winning by 7 scores. Ahmad Bradshaw has taken the starting job and run with it. Bradshaw is 5th in the league with 382 rushing yards. A nice showing through 4 games, but nothing compared to the surprise of 2010, Arian Foster. Forget Chris Johnson or Adrian Peterson, Foster has racked up 537 yards on the ground. The Texans are off to a franchise best 3-1 start. Don't expect the Giants to collect another 10 sacks, but do expect Eli Manning to rack up some yardage. Houston is dead last in defense against the pass. New York has the 3rd best defense, but is 22nd vs the run. The Colts are the common opponent for both teams. The Texans had a 10-point home victory over Indy. The G-Men got rolled in Indy by 24. The Giants are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 on grass.
PICK: Texans -3
Falcons(3-1) @ Browns(1-3) – noon
Atlanta favored by 3
Roddy White's all out effort play to knock a Matt Ryan interception out of Nate Clements' hands saved the day as the Falcons went down the field to set up a field goal to keep Mike Singletary from getting his 49ers club their first win of the year. Atlanta will be going for their first 4-game winning streak in 6 years. The Dirty Birds defense has allowed just 15 points per game, but Ryan has thrown a league high 8 picks. '09 Cutler? Browns fans love what they've seen out of their bruising back Peyton Hillis. Back-to-back 100 yard games for Hillis, including a score in all 4 games. The trends tell you Cleveland, but Jake Delhomme expects to be back.
PICK: Falcons -3
Saints(3-1) @ Cardinals(2-2) – 305pm
New Orleans favored by 6.5
How are the Arizona Cardinals 2-2? Their 2 wins were close victories over the Raiders & Rams. Their 2 losses were to the Chargers & Falcons by a combined 65 points. Since Kurt Warner's retirement, the Cardinals quarterback was expected to be Matt Leinart. They cut ties with Leinart and made Derek Anderson the starter. The job now belongs to undrafted free agent Max Hall. The defending champion Saints are a soft 3-1. New Orleans is averaging 12 points less per game. Pierre Thomas & Reggie Bush will be out once again. Arizona's defense is giving up 30 points a game. The Saints should score more. Expect NO defensive coordinator Gregg Williams to send Bourbon St to get after Hall. Drew Brees has 7 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, & a 102 passer rating. The last time these two met, the Saints sent Warner to retirement with a 45-14 thumping. Brees will have the Saints looking like it's 2009.
PICK: Saints -6.5
SUNDAY'S LOCK
Packers(3-1) @ Redskins(2-2) – noon
Green Bay favored by 2.5
We have a classic letdown game for Washington. A week ago, the biggest story was how Philly fans would react to Donovan McNabb returning in a Skins jersey. The Redskins are 2-0 in the division, but have the worst pass defense in the NFC and here comes Aaron Rodgers & company. Ryan Torain will start at tailback in place of injured Clinton Portis. Torain has been a nice spark to help Washington's offense along. Now, he's the guy for 4-6 weeks. Over the last 2 weeks, the Pack lost to the Bears by 3 & edged out the Lions by 2. Green Bay's defense is tied for the NFL lead with 16 sacks. GB is 9-3-1 in their last 13 ATS.
PICK: Packers -2.5
Joe Ostrowski is the executive producer of The Laurence Holmes Show & can be heard Saturdays 8pm-midnight on The Joe O & Rock Show on 670 The Score.
