Expert Preakness Picks

(WSCR) Here are some expert picks for the Preakness from The Mully and Hanley Show.

Paul Lo Duca, TVG analyst (he gave us Derby winner)
 7-9-6 (Bodemeister-I'll Have Another-Creative Cause)

Andrew Beyer, Washington Post
7-6-9 (Bodemeister-Creative Cause-I'll-Have-Another)

Liam Durbin, e-ponies.com
7-9-3-6 (Bodemeister-I'll Have Another-Pretension-Creative Cause)

Although he got caught in the stretch to finish second in the Derby, Bodemeister's performance impressed many people.  His fractions for six furlongs and a mile were fifth fastest on record in the Derby, and it was the first time a horse has set such fractions and still hit the board. With less company on the lead today, and a half a furlong less to run, he ends up as the morning line favorite.  But he does have some challenges.

This is the first time Bodemeister has been raced after just a two week rest.  And the Derby effort had to have taken something out of him.  The extra sixteenth of a mile may not be as much help as he will need.  Looking to the Derby winner as the spoiler would be reasonable, but his Derby victory still stands out as a bit of a fluke.  He had shown distance limitations in two previous starts, and at times had been drawn in too close to the lead.

And up until the Derby win, had never raced on the East coast.  The Derby winner will be well bet, but may not be the best value bet.  More than likely the one to catch Bodemeister will be one of the highly competitive horses who ran in the Derby but who saw their chances compromised by a very rough trip.  For one, Creative Cause easily handled I'll Have Another as a two year old, and was catching him in the Santa Anita Derby.  His rough trip in the Derby compromised his chances there, but the smaller field in the Preakness should level the playing field again.

Another horse that ran big in the Derby, despite a very troubled trip was Went The Day Well.  He was closing very strongly late when he finally got free room to run.  Both the two favorites will be well bet, so there should be opportunity to find some value.

What to bet:  At likely post time odds of 2:1 or less, Bodemeister is not particularly good value so bet around him.  Take Creative Cause to win.  Wheel Creative Cause and I'll Have another over Bodemeister, Went The Day Well and Tiger Walk in exacta and trifecta boxes.

For value:  Of the newcomers in the Preakness, none stand out as a must-include, but there will be no value in betting all the Derby horses. Tiger Walk looks to be the strongest of the lot, based on his fourth place efforts in the Gotham and the Wood Memorial.  At 30:1 he is worth a shot. Mully: Bodemeister, the only question is has he run too much?

Hanley: Bodemeister should cruise if he gets out front & is not challenged, if there is a dual look for Went the Day Well could be there, had plenty of excuses in the Derby.