Hurley's Picks: Raiders-Broncos might be the best bad game of the year
BOSTON -- I'd like to begin the picks column this week with an apology.
A week ago, when previewing the Rams' home game against the Cardinals, I dubbed it "The Disappointment Bowl." I truly and genuinely apologize for this inaccurate statement. I was actually a week early.
Because this week, we've got the real Disappointment Bowl, with the 2-7 Raiders visiting the 3-6 Broncos in a battle in the basement of the AFC West.
It wasn't all that long ago that some pundits were saying the AFC West would possibly be the best division ever, with the Chiefs being the Chiefs, the Chargers loading up in free agency, the Raiders adding a great offensive head coach and an all-time receiver, and the Broncos complementing their rock-solid defense by acquiring Russell Wilson to run the offense. Outside of the Chiefs, the results have ranged from underwhelming to borderline disastrous.
The Raiders would certainly qualify for that latter description, as a 10-7 playoff team from a year ago is now hopelessly navigating a lost season. Derek Carr is openly weeping after Week 10 losses. The goofy-haircutted owner is giving public votes of confidence to head coach Josh McDaniels. Davante Adams is being interrogated by reporters every week about the buy-in factor in the locker room. And with eight losable games remaining on their schedule, it somehow has the potential to get even uglier before January.
Then there's the Broncos, who sent two first-round picks, two second-round picks and three roster players to Seattle in order to acquire Russell Wilson. That's the same Russell Wilson who currently ranks 27th in passing touchdowns and 28th in passer rating this season. He's running an offense that ranks 22nd in yards gained and -- shockingly -- dead last in scoring. With 14.5 points per game this year, the Broncos have actually gotten worse from their mark of 19.7 points per game last year, when the offense was helmed by Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock.
Throw in a head coach in Nathaniel Hackett who was so bad to start the season that the Broncos had to hire a personal assistant coach to help him understand in-game decision-making better. And throw in Josh McDaniels, who now has a 7-24 win-loss record after starting his head coaching career with a 6-0 record.
What. A. Mess.
These two teams have already met, with the Raiders getting their first win of the season against the Broncos back in Week 4. That game dropped the Broncos to 2-2. We really didn't know how bad it was going to get for both teams in the month-plus that has since passed. And now we all get to witness the NFL's two biggest disappointments squaring off on a Sunday afternoon.
As Hackett said this week, "Somebody has to win this game." That's not technically true (a tie would be DELIGHFUL), but regardless of which team wins -- whether it's the Broncos improving to 4-6 or the mighty Raiders getting to 3-7 -- it's probably not going to feel very good.
Speaking of disappointment, here are my football picks for the week in football. It's been tough lately, OK?
(Thursday lines; home team in CAPS)
Tennessee (+3.5) over GREEN BAY
Generally speaking, I don't like to take the road team on a short week when the teams are more or less evenly matched. It's just that I'm not so sure we're talking about evenly matched teams here. I may end up being very wrong, but I don't see one single win curing enough of the Packers' woes to allow them to win twice in five days after going more than a month without a win.
Los Angeles Rams (+3) over NEW ORLEANS
Look. It's a bad game. The Rams are 1-2 on the road. The Saints are 2-4 at home. Some jabroni out there is going to tell you there's a right pick here. But there's not. There just is not.
Cleveland (+8) over BUFFALO
Likewise, with all of the contingencies being bandied about regarding this game and a potential relocation, I just don't know what to tell you. If they do play in Buffalo with three to six FEET of snow in the area, then I'd love to grab those points in a game that could be low-scoring.
If they play it in Detroit or something, though, the pick is Buffalo.
UPDATE: Buffalo (-7.5) over Cleveland (in Detroit)
See above!
Philadelphia (-6.5) over INDIANAPOLIS
I understand that some people -- like, say, an unnamed sports writer who dedicated his whole picks column to Jim Irsay and the Colts' dysfunction -- really hammered the Colts for the Jeff Saturday hire. Still, the victory lap taken by some people -- including Irsay -- because the Colts won on Sunday was repulsive.
Are these people not aware that premature celebrations on a head coach winning his first game live on forever?
Washington (-3) over HOUSTON
If you hesitate for even one second to take Taylor Heinicke on the road then you're a COWARD, no offense.
New York Jets (+3.5) over NEW ENGLAND
This one pretty much hinges on whether or not Zach Wilson can keep at bay his burning desire to throw one-hundred-and-seven interceptions against the Patriots. It's no sure thing. But short of those picks, the Patriots aren't really at "beat the same team twice in a season" level right now. No, not even the Jets.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) over Detroit
Get in, loser, we're riding the Giants to yet another win.
Chicago (+3) over ATLANTA
Go ahead and try to figure out the Falcons. I dare you. Personally, I've given up.
Carolina (+13) over BALTIMORE
The Panthers are sneakily 3-2 against the spread since firing Matt Rhule. And the Ravens have won by two touchdowns or more just twice all year. Granted, they did exactly that in their last game, on the road in New Orleans. BUT. Their average margin of victory this year is just 8.3 points.
DENVER (-2.5) over Las Vegas
Just going to lay it all out on the table here: I've watched much more of the Raiders recently than I have of the Broncos. Earlier in the year, the Broncos were unavoidable. They were putting up six points in prime time seemingly every week. But I haven't intimately watched their sub-mediocrity in a few weeks. So this pick entirely hinges on that.
Don't say I'd ever lie to you.
(To be honest, the weeping quarterback, the loss to a joke of a team, and the overall dysfunction that's seemingly permeated the Raiders is too much to ignore.)
Dallas (-1.5) over MINNESOTA
WHAT AM I DOING? Two consecutive road losses is exactly the way a Mike McCarthy-led team with Super Bowl aspirations has its season get away from them. Yet here I am. Being a legitimate bozo.
I'm just going on a hunch. The Cowboys are coming off their worst loss of the year. The Vikings are coming off their best win of the year. Such situations can affect teams differently. And it feels like after the emotions spent to win last week in Buffalo, we won't be getting the Vikings' best this time.
Cincinnati (-4) over PITTSBURGH
The Bengals owe one to the Steelers. In a big way.
Kansas City (-5.5) over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
If the Chargers were going to be this irrelevant, couldn't they have just brought back Mike McCoy?
San Francisco (-8) over Arizona (in Mexico City)
Who doesn't love a Monday nighter in Estadio Azteca?
The Cardinals might not. Because when the 49ers win, they win big. Four of their five wins have been by 15 or more points. Their average margin of victory in their five wins is 16. Kyle Shanahan clearly subscribes to the Jack Reilly school of coaching:
So if you think the Niners will win this game -- and I do -- then the spread shouldn't be an issue.
Last week: 7-7
Season: 71-74-5
You can email Michael Hurley or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
