November 2011 Is #2!
It's the talk of the town. This unusually warm November following an anomalous inland mega snowfall in late October is the subject of conversation everywhere I go. Folks were installing their exterior holiday lights dressed in shorts yesterday. What gives? Admittedly, I'm loving this weather right along with many many others. With reduced heating demand, we're all saving some money! It's all good except for the snow lovers, the ski resort folks, the skiers and boarders. With that said, last Wednesday's storm production of 10-15" of snow up north enabled many resorts to open up a few trails this holiday weekend. Will we pay dearly for this charmed existence anytime soon? Well, there are some signals that the first full week of December will yield some genuine cold air. In the meantime, it appears that the last 3 days of this month will feature much above average temperatures making November 2011 the second warmest November in 139 years of record-keeping in Boston at about 5.4 degress above the average. November 1975 will keep the crown as the warmest November on record at a whopping 7.1 degrees above the average. This month will likely turn out to be the warmest November on record in Worcester and up in Portland, ME. The very warm November 1975 was followed by a season of slightly above average snowfall. However, based upon a study of the past 25 years, Novembers that were more than +1.5 degrees ( 1988, 90, 94, 99, 2001, 06, 09), the following seasonal snowfalls were significantly below average. For example, November 1990 was +3.3 degrees including 3 record highs of 76 on the 3rd, 74 on the 28th and 69 on the 29th! That winter season produced only 50% of the average snowfall! When I posted my winter outlook early this month, I was concerned about the magnitude of blocking that was crucial to yielding above average snowfall. Other important global atmospheric and oceanic factors were favorable for colder than average weather with above average snowfall for December into January. This postulation is highly dependent upon high latitude blocking which was very strong the first part of last winter. I reiterated that the absence of high latitude volcanism and a rebounding solar flux were acting against blockage. Consequently, we would need to focus on the potential for sudden stratospheric warming. Presently, it appears that long-period blocking is much less likely this season but occasional shorter bursts of blocking will produce the more common cycles oscillating between warm spells and cold blasts. In other words, an intense nonstop 6-week period of cold and snow like last winter is unlikely. We will continue to monitor the myriad of global variables that control our seasonal climate and weather patterns and provide updates and any warranted revisions.
Today's backdoor cold front produced a cooler and more damp environment as expected with temperatures down about 5-10 degrees from yesterday's maximum readings. Areas of fog and low clouds stubbornly burned off inland but lingered near the coast on the North Shore. The front will retreat northward as a warm front so the wind will become southwesterly and after a chill to the upper 30s to lower 40s across northern MA this evening, it will become milder overnight. This sets the stage for another warm day tomorrow with temperatures similar to yesterday's lower to middle 60s. The amount of apparent sunshine is tricky but it seems reasonable that varying amounts of clouds at various levels will enable the sun to be visible at times. Rain is unlikely until Tuesday. Initially, it may be just misty in spots starting as early as daybreak with some areas of fog. Eventually, some showers should break out mainly in the afternoon. After that, a swirling storm tracking from the Gulf States northward into the eastern Ohio Valley will deliver a strip of heavier rain into New England Tuesday night then shifting offshore around dawn on Wednesday. It should become partly sunny during the day with highs in the middle to upper 50s. Cooler air will flow in with plentiful sunshine on Thursday with highs in the lower 50s. The next cold front will swoop across the area Friday night with perhaps some rain showers changing to snow showers. A brisk cold Saturday is anticipated with temperatures closer to the average for early December.
Substituting for Melissa Mack, Joe Joyce delivers his AccuWeather Forecast in the morning and Todd Gutner follows later in the day.
Make it a great week!
