Hurley's Picks: Wait a second ... we're getting good football on Thanksgiving?
BOSTON -- For as long as any of us can remember, NFL football has been a critical component of the Thanksgiving experience. It's just usually not very good.
That may be anecdotal, sure, but with the Lions involved every year, there's always been one ugly game for us to kind of ignore as we shovel deviled eggs and stuffed mushrooms into our mouths during our Thanksgiving warmup period. (You all have Thanksgiving warmup periods, right? Yes? OK.) And while the Cowboys are generally a compelling product, they haven't always been a great product. And with the unpredictably of the NFL, even matchups that seemed great when the schedule was made in the spring end up disappointing come Turkey Day.
The addition of the night game to the mix has been nice, but the greatest memory from those games thus far involves Mark Travis John Sanchez running directly into the butt of his teammate, losing the football in the process in what was an embarrassing loss for the New York Jets.
But this year? This year, buddy, the football is good. There's some downtown football going on. And we all get to watch.
Get your warmups in early, folks. You're going to need your eyes to be fully operational by 12:30 p.m. Eastern this year.
(Home team in CAPS; Tuesday lines)
DETROIT (+9.5) over Buffalo
Those of us in the NFL picking community occasionally rely on data, on stats, on research, on history, on raw, unemotional factors to help us make our picks.
Then sometimes we just get all geared up watching a Dan Campbell postgame speech.
You think that team is going to come out flat on Thursday? It's not happening.
OK, it could happen. But! There is an emotional factor on the other side. The Bills managed to power through their blizzard week, flying out to Detroit late on Saturday, doing enough to beat the Browns on Sunday, then flying back to their snow-covered homes in Western New York. Now they have to go back to Detroit a few days later, to play a game that doesn't mean as much to them as it does to their opponent.
I don't have the guts to outright pick the upset here. But I'm not ruling it out. At the very least, I see the Lions treating this game like a Super Bowl. Pick the Bills at your own peril. Now if you'll excuse me, I've got a Dan Campbell locker room speech to get back to.
We're playing some pretty clean ... PHYSICAL football, man.
New York Giants (+9) over DALLAS
Points are just being thrown around all willy-nilly here, aren't they? Sheesh.
The reality is, those of us who have ridden with the Giants all year aren't going to be scared off by one flop against Detroit. The Giants have been so reliable this year. They're still 7-3 against the spread, including 5-2 in their last seven. And when they're getting points? They're 5-1 against the spread. And they've never gotten this many. When they got 8.5 against Green Bay in London, they won the game outright.
I fully admit that scoring points is going to be quite the challenge for the Giants. But Brian Daboll's worked some magic this year. I like this one staying relatively close -- certainly close enough to capture all of our attention as we prepare to either fall asleep or eat our fifth meal of the day.
New England (+2.5) over MINNESOTA
I am disappointed the Patriots aren't getting more points here to make it easier. I thought Sunday's magnificent offense-free showing might alter that line a bit. Nevertheless!
I think this game will feature 55 sacks between the two teams. Which quarterback will get strip-sacked more often, and where each quarterback gets strip-sacked is the key to the game.
Now, I don't know which quarterback will get strip-sacked more. But I do know the game is being played at night. And Kirk Cousins doesn't do "night" so well. I generally hate the road team on a short week if that road team isn't excellent, but Prime-Time Kirk can be the difference-maker in that equation.
Last week: 7-6-1
Season: 78-80-6
You can email Michael Hurley or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
