Toomey Now Leads Specter in New Pa. Poll
However, the poll results also suggest that Specter is well positioned ahead of the Democratic primary next year. His leading opponent, Rep. Joe Sestak, is trailing him by 19 percentage points, holding only 25 to Specter's 44.
When pitted against each other in a hypothetical matchup, Sestak and Toomey are also close with Toomey barely ahead 38 to 35 percent. But this matchup has also received the highest percentage of undecided voters at 25 percent.
The poll of 1,100 Pennsylvania voters has a margin of error of three percentage points.
Despite his lead, however, Toomey is still largely unknown to Pennsylvanians, with 53 percent of voters saying that they "do not know enough about him to form an opinion." In a run against the high-profile Specter, whose approval rating has fallen to an all time low in the poll at 44 percent, Toomey's lack of fame and notoriety could turn into a positive. A final outcome, it seems, could rest on who reaches voters first to inform them about Toomey.
"Pat Toomey is pretty much a blank slate to half of the state's voters and that is both his opportunity and his potential Achilles Heel," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Given his own shortcomings in the public eye, the only way for Sen. Specter to defeat Toomey is to convince that huge group of voters that they won't like what they find out about Toomey. There will be a race to define Pat Toomey to Pennsylvanians and that race will likely determine who wins the Senate seat."
The poll also finds that President Obama's job approval rating has fallen from 56 to 49 percent in Pennsylvania, marking the first time that the number has dipped below 50 percent. His ratings on the economy and health care are also below 50 percent in the state.
Toomey 's poll number have risen slowly but consistently since early May, when he trailed Specter by 20 points following Specter's party switch. Specter's numbers, in contrast, have been rapidly declining over the last five months, leading to the close race as it stands now.