Winner Weeks Away In New York Congressional Race
Democrat Scott Murphy currently holds a 25 vote lead over Republican Jim Tedisco, according to the AP, and as voters in the Albany-area district wait for absentee ballots to be counted, everyone seems to be spinning away as to who will prevail and what the current non-outcome means.
Rep. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., the head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, told reporters this afternoon that he's happy they're where they are, citing Murphy being an unknown to voters and pointing to a Republican poll in February that showed Murphy down 21 points to Tedisco.
"We think we're doing well, especially given the fact that we were running against somebody, a very well-known quantity on the Republican side," Van Hollen said, adding, "We started with someone with no political background whatsoever and we are ahead as of today."
Cutting through the spin: The Democrats love to tout their successes in 2006 and 2008 in majority Republican House districts and in districts where John McCain won in 2008. So, what happened to Murphy considering his party's recent wins in GOP congressional districts (NY-20 has 70,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats) and the fact that Kirsten Gillibrand – who vacated the seat when she was appointed to fill Hillary Clinton's Senate seat in January – won with 62 percent of the vote in November?
Meantime, the Republicans – still feeling the sting of the lingering Minnesota Senate recount – are aggressively digging in their heels.
"While the absentee and military vote count will not occur for several more days, we are confident that Jim Tedisco will ultimately become the next congressman from New York's 20th Congressional District," the National Republican Congressional Committee wrote in an e-mailed memo to reporters.
They argue that a Tedisco win – or even a virtual tie – is a giant FAIL for the Democrats since the district "has performed well for Democrats in recent elections: President Obama carried New York's 20th Congressional District less than 150 days ago."
Cutting through the spin: So, what happened to Tedisco considering the district has signficantly more registered Republicans than Democrats, was held by the Republican Party for 28 years, and Tedisco, as the Republican Leader of the New York State Assembly, is well-known?
Both may argue being close is a win in itself - the Democrats because of the registration edge, the Republicans because this is a district that President Obama carried.
And whatever the campaigns say about how this will turn out via the absentee votes, approach any predictions or declarations about what will happen with some caution.
For instance: the New York State Board of Elections reports the party registration breakdowns of voters who got, and returned, absentee ballots in the NY 20th so far. There were more absentees mailed out to registered Republicans (4,473) than to registered Democrats (3,390) and 1,974 to other partisans or unaffiliated.
As of late Wednesday, both registered Republicans and Democrats have been returning them at about the same rate, 65% for the former and 63% for the latter. And 47% of others have returned their ballots so far (which is probably not surprising in an off-year special election.)
But all that may or may not be telling. Registration doesn't necessarily matter in outcomes: registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by about 70,000 voters, a Democrat has won this district twice in a row and President Obama carried it, too.
Also, these absentee return rates can change by the day. Ballots can still arrive for another week and be accepted (so long as they were postmarked by Monday, March 30th) and military ballots have another two weeks to get in, so there are possibly thousands more still in the mail, en route, and they could reshape these tallies again.
Another unknown when talking about the absentees: we won't know for a while which will ultimately be declared valid or not. All the absentees that come in are being held aside, impounded until April 6th.
With that many variables in play – plus the inevitable re-canvass of the in-person vote tallies in each precinct – the only certainty here: a long wait.