Politics

Tough Battle For Gillibrand's House Seat

March 25, 2009 / 2:49 PM EDT / CBS News

This post was written by Steve Chaggaris, CBS News Director of Political Coverage and Anthony Salvanto, CBS News Director of Elections.

There's a great race taking place around Saratoga Springs, New York, and it's not the Belmont Stakes.

(AP Photo/Tim Roske)

In a special election to be held next Tuesday for the Congressional seat (NY-20) being vacated by Kirsten Gillibrand - who took over Hillary Clinton's seat in the Senate - candidates Scott Murphy (D) and Jim Tedisco (R) are sparring over the bailouts, AIG bonuses and the budget in one of those rare off-year contests where we'll get to watch the hot topics of the day play out at the ballot box.

Since Murphy was named the Democrats' nominee in January, national Democrats have been accused of not aggressively working to keep the seat in Democratic hands, while the GOP has been out in full force behind their candidate, Jim Tedisco. Today, however, President Obama endorsed Murphy, allowing some worried Democrats to breathe easier...but also, perhaps, intensifying the spotlight on the race and putting a bit more of his political capital at risk.

Ultimately, there may be more at stake here for Republicans, at least in the minds of pundits. Hence the GOP's all-out effort.

First, it would be a Republican pick-up in the first race with national interest since President Obama took office.

And while it would have no effect on the Democratic Party's huge majority in the House, it would give Republicans the (arguable) talking point that a win represents a referendum on the president's policies.

A loss for Tedisco, on the other hand, would give the Democrats an opportunity to use the same dubious argument that a Murphy win is a reflection on the job Mr. Obama and the Democrats are doing.

In the end, political analyst Stu Rothenberg tells CBS News, while national issues may have an effect on how voters in this district vote, "voters aren't going through the Obama agenda with a fine-tooth comb and deciding whether to vote for Murphy or Tedisco."

Second, a Republican win here would bring a speck of good news for a party that's still reeling from their 2008 losses and continues to try to find its voice. Yet while any win is good news, Rothenberg points out that a win in a special election in upstate New York isn't the answer to all of the GOP's woes.

"If the GOP wins, it's not like it's 'Morning in America' for them," he said. "They still have the same problems and damaged brand. It's not like Obama's in trouble" if Murphy loses.

(AP)

Tedisco and Murphy's district appears to have become competitive between the parties, at least in regular elections. Historically part of a reliably-Republican stretch of upstate New York – today registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by 70,000 - in 2006 Democrat Gillibrand wrested the seat from the Republican who'd held it for multiple terms. She was easily re-elected in '08.

President Obama narrowly got more votes than McCain in the district, which George W. Bush had won comfortably in 2004. It runs from the Hudson Valley most of the way up the state, along the border with Vermont; a sizeable part of it is rural, and also contains some wealthy towns and counties, which means an interesting backdrop for these battles over taxes, budgets and bailouts.

As with most special elections, though, this one will likely be decided by turnout. Special elections typically draw just a fraction of the voters who participate in the fall of midterm (about a quarter-million in 2006) or presidential election years -- though this year heavy spending by both camps could drive turnout up to above-average levels. Note, too, that there isn't much absentee voting in New York State, so both sides' efforts will come down to Tuesday.