WEATHER BLOG: Rain Into Fall

Hi Everyone,

Now that Is what I call a great example of a forecast changing hour by hour, minute by minute, and the perfect example of when I say the Earth is itself a variable. Exactly what am I talking about?..Well the weekend of course.

Believe it, and take it to the bank, there was a TON of rain about a 2 hour drive South of us. All weekend. But that big dome of high pressure over us at the end of last week did not breakdown, and kept blocking the northerly movement of that rain. Simply put the Earth changed its mind. No problems in my book. That is why it is called a forecast not a guarantee.

(If you want to buy into the guarantee scenario that is your biz, I have stated here more than once that the "buy in" is not a real smart path to take. My exact words have been "be a knowledgeable consumer.")

So where are we now with this dome of high pressure-? Well we are watching a frontal boundary approach from the West which will get to the coast and stall. Why? That's right it is the big dome of high pressure sitting offshore still  up to our North East putting up a block over the Eastern Seaboard. That is also why a pretty good amount of moisture moving up from the South will be funneled right into the region. It will follow that front like a train moves along a track. Every day this school, and work week, will feature a shower or two. Some of those showers might  indeed be periods of rain.

A bit of rain will kick fall's expected look into gear, and the color wheel will begin to amp up.

But then again what if Mother Nature changes her mind? What if the Earth itself becomes a variable again? Good questions. But in this numbers game the trend would actually be for wetter conditions rather than a return to drier or milder. Sometimes ya win and sometimes ya lose. We had a big win this weekend. Let's hope now for a change free week and another win. Rain we need flooding rains we don't!

MB