WEATHER BLOG: Fourth Of July Weather

As we get closer and closer to the Fourth of July, the weather pattern is starting to shape up as rather unsettled for much of Maryland and the mid-Atlantic states.

A "parade of shortwave disturbances" moving through a zone located much farther to the south will be largely responsible for a few showers and a thunderstorm or two.

Most of this activity later today, tonight and tomorrow will be occurring in areas close to and to the south of the Mason-Dixon Line.

While we are NOT expecting a repeat of the outbreak of heavy thunderstorms that we encountered Tuesday night and early yesterday, it is tough to identify a period greater than 12 hours which will be rain-free.

While confidence continues to grow about areas well to the north staying dry -- extreme South Jersey, Delaware and Maryland will probably wind up in more of an unsettled category, because all will be in much closer proximity to a nearly stationary front.

So, while cities like Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington, D.C. might pick up a shower or brief thunderstorm later this afternoon or tonight, these won't be as widespread as it was late Tuesday night and early yesterday morning.

Parts of the mid-Atlantic coast may see a shower tomorrow morning, followed by a lengthy 'break in the action'.

The wet looking scenario that the N.A.M. is portraying up to Long Island, New York late on Friday night and early Saturday is showing up along Maryland's Eastern Shore, in Delaware and all points west. The G.F.S. prints out two-tenths of rain Saturday afternoon and evening in, for example, Salisbury, Maryland.

The G.F.S. is givingBaltimore and Washington, D.C. between 0.10 and 0.25 inches of rain on Saturday afternoon --which is certainly no "deluge", but it could impact some afternoon or evening plans on the Independence Day holiday.

As for those who are 'headed to the mountains' and not the beaches, or staying at home on Independence Day, it does look like a very modest push of moisture on Saturday will be spreading northward along the spine of the Appalachians... This may cause a 'spotty' shower or thunderstorm on Saturday afternoon, but probably nothing more.. We expect a warmer and somewhat more humid finish to the holiday weekend on Sunday, and then Monday will be rain-free.

It still appears that the next front approaching from the north and west won't bring rain to the East Coast until next Wednesday -- but that can change, and we'll keep an eye on that... Have a good day!!