BLOG: Still Warm

Temperatures will be mostly in the low and mid-90s, except at some of the beaches. With a new front expected to reach the Northeast and the mid-Atlantic states late this afternoon or early tonight, there'll be a few key ingredients coming together which can lead to a few strong or even severe thunderstorms.

The "CAPE", or Convective Available Potential Energy, values will be relatively high. This is measured in Joules per Kilogram of air, and any time it is projected to be between 2,000 and 4,000 units (like it is later today/early tonight), some impressive heat can combine with shear (winds that change rapidly with increasing height) to help fuel volatile thunderstorms. The bottom line: We should anticipate a few severe thunderstorm watches will be issued this afternoon along the I-95 corridor, especially between New England and Maryland. All showers and thunderstorms will wind down tonight. Tomorrow, as a front settles into the mid-Atlantic states, the air behind it will still be very warm, but also somewhat less humid.

As this old front, which will eventually stall over the mid-Atlantic states tomorrow, starts to reverse its course tomorrow night and Wednesday (only this time, it'll be a WARM front), it will become the focal point of some more showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday night and during the day Wednesday. Most of the global models are printing out the most rain in eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and across southeastern New York from late on Tuesday night into Wednesday. So, it appears that in order to get a "break" from the heat, many locations will probably be dealing with some hard downpours -- especially tomorrow night and on Wednesday morning. The 00z run of the European Global Forecast Model is printing out between 1 and 2 inches of rain close to cities like Philadelphia and New York during this time frame.

As a wave of low pressure moves through the East Wednesday night and eventually out to sea, some drier air will be following on its heels. And, even though it should be fairly sunny, MOST temperatures on both Thursday and Friday should be no higher than the mid or upper-80s.

Have a good day !!!