BLOG: Rainy

Yesterday's lack of any widespread shower activity, and the tendency for clouds to break for a little sunshine, caused many afternoon temperatures across the region to exceed our expectations just a bit. While it was 80 in Baltimore (or, close to what we expected), it was also 80 across the NYC Metro Area as well as in other portions of eastern Pennsylvania. The humidity has been rather high, and that will remain the case for the next few days. Whatever rain we were lacking yesterday will almost certainly be more than "made up for" later on today, tonight and tomorrow. A Flood Watch or a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for most places from Virginia to central New England. One of these watches will be starting this morning and will only last through this afternoon (like in the Greater Baltimore and Washington, D.C. Metro Areas). However, some others will begin this afternoon and will last through early Saturday night (such as from areas surrounding New York City on up to the Greater Boston Area). Looking at the regional radar mosaic early today, there's some heavy rainfall associated with shower activity occurring near the Carolina Coast. Also, some of the showers and thunderstorms which are associated with a slow-moving front in the Ohio and Tennessee valleys are creeping northward as of this writing. This front will continue to slowly, but surely, press eastward over the next 24-36 hours. Also, some vigorous upper-level energy in the Great Lakes region is still being forecasted to drift southeastward over the next 3-5 days. The pool of the coldest air aloft associated with this feature is currently located  over Wisconsin and northern Illinois, and it might only manage to shift into Lower Michigan by Monday afternoon.

With all of these things in mind, we must stress that upper-level winds along the Eastern Seaboard will remain out of the south and southwest over the next few days. Even though an upper-level low pressure system, or a "cut-off low" will be located to our west, there'll also be a high pressure system located out in the western Atlantic. Both of these entities will be acting together in pumping the rich, tropical moisture along the East Coast. And, a couple of waves of low pressure pushing northward along a nearly stationary front located near the I-95 corridor will manage to enhance the rainfall. Some of that heavy rain will be occur from this afternoon into tonight across the mid-Atlantic region, but it will most likely occur from very late today or tonight into tomorrow farther north.

Rainfall totals during the next 24-48 hours will average 1-3 inches in most of the big cities between Washington, D.C. and Boston, but locally higher amounts of 4 inches are not out of the question. If there's anything "good" to talk about during the rest of the forecast period, it is that while there will still be an upper-level low drifting through the Northeast and the mid-Atlantic states Sunday night and early next week, any shower activity associated with it will be more scattered in nature. We still can't guarantee that the area will be totally rain-free Sunday, Monday, Tuesday or even on Wednesday -- but the prognosis is that there won't be nearly as much rain as there will be in the next couple of days.

Have a good weekend!!!