How Iran responded to U.S.-Israeli attacks

First, we have a Free Presscontributor, Niall Ferguson. He's a scholar of international economics and imperial history and the author of 16 books. So, Niall, thank you so much for being here.

It's my pleasure, Rafaela.

Well, let's start with just the basics. You know, we're just hours into the US-Israeli joint military operation called Operation Epic Fury. What do we know so far? What happened overnight?

Well, we know that the diplomatic maneuvers of the last couple of weeks were maskirovka, not likely to produce a real diplomatic compromise. I've been clear about this for some time, because it was obvious that the Iranians were not prepared to yield on the key demands that were being made by President Trump's negotiators, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, not forgetting Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has also been involved. And what they had said was you need to give up enriching uranium and hand over your weapons grade uranium, you need to end your ballistic missiles program, and thirdly, and least importantly, stop financing the terrorist proxies. That's less important, because those proxies are so much weaker than they were at the time of October 7, 2023. And the Iranians essentially said no. And although we were told by the Omani Foreign Minister and others that these negotiations were going somewhere, they weren't. And when they ended in Geneva, on Thursday, and the Americans left, they were not intending to return. What's happened-- and of course, we're now in the fog of war, so I have to speak with the caution of somebody who's observing this from outside the government. But what we know is that the United States and Israel have struck multiple targets in Iran, aiming at regime personnel, as well as regime infrastructure, and the early reports, including from Israeli sources, suggest that at least some influential figures in the Islamic Republic have been hit. Of course, the rumor is going around they've got the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. That is not confirmed. But that tells us what the goal of Operation Epic Fury and the Israeli counterpart Roaring Lion is, to decapitate the Islamic Republic, and as you mentioned in your introduction, to hope that out of that decapitation can come a revolution in Iran, a new regime, but not a regime imposed by the United States and Israel, a regime that the US and Israel hope that Iranians will create for themselves in the conditions that have been created or are being created by these strikes.

And just to make sure the listener is following along, you're saying that they've targeted both private residences of high ranking regime officials and political leaders, as well as military assets? Is that right?

That is my understanding, but I emphasize it's an ongoing operation at a relatively early stage, and all kinds of rumors are flying around. I actually think more important than that is the way the Iranian regime has responded, because it's responded by retaliating against US targets in multiple Gulf states. I think six different Gulf states have been on the receiving end of Iranian missiles, or perhaps in some cases, drones. It's again, not entirely clear. That's remarkable in two respects. First of all, not much damage seems to have been done. Again, fog of war, but that's my understanding, because most of these missiles have, in fact, been intercepted and destroyed, did not hit their targets. Secondly, the Iranians are doing their level best to lose friends and alienate people by carrying out these attacks. Most of the Gulf states, Saudi Arabia, for example, certainly Kuwait, Qatar, do not want to be a combatant, don't want to be involved in this conflict and have done their best to emphasize their neutrality. Well, that's out the window, and it's pretty clear, for example, from the statement from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia that the Gulf Arabs are pretty disgusted to find themselves under attack from Tehran. And whatever else is happening, we can see a certain desperation in the Iranian regime's response, I think.

And what are they targeting in these regional countries? US military bases? I know there's fear that oil fields will be struck. What right now do we know are they targeting?

Well, we certainly know that they were trying to get the US Naval base in Bahrain. That must have been something that the US anticipated, and I'd be surprised if significant damage was inflicted there. I haven't yet heard any reports of attacks on oil infrastructure, but it would be surprising if the Iranians didn't try to do that. Their kind of most impactful response, the thing that would cause the most damage to the United States would be if they could somehow block the Strait of Hormuz and entirely disrupt the huge flow of oil that goes through that Strait. That would cause a big price spike in the oil market when trading gets going tomorrow. But we don't yet have any reports to suggest that that's been attempted, much less succeeded.