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How accurate is Punxsutawney Phil?

Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow on Monday, predicting six more weeks of winter. CBS News meteorologist Zoe Mintz breaks down the groundhog's accuracy.
Feb 2 (02:33)

TRANSCRIPT FOR: “HOW ACCURATE IS PUNXSUTAWNEY PHIL'S PREDICTION?”

MUGO ODIGWE:
00:00:00

You can look forward to six more weeks of winter after Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow today. Phil's handlers in Gobbler's Knob, Pennsylvania, pulled the portly groundhog from his tree stump in the predawn cold. We should note, though, Phil's accuracy is just OK. Federal weather officials say he's been right only about 40% of the time. All right, let's bring in the actual expert now, meteorologist Zoe Mintz. I just want to say, in Phil's favor, 40% is not that bad. I mean, what if you were to get 40% on a test, though? That's failing. That's a fail. Total fail. It's a fail. If I were to get 40% of my forecast-- You probably would not have this job. --I probably would not have this job. But it's Punxsutawney Phil. It's fun. It's cute. He's cute. Don't get me wrong. Yeah, leave him alone. Well, let's show you some fun facts, just to kind of show you how accurate he's been over the past couple of years because he has actually done about 30% accuracy just over the past 10 years. Since it started in 1887, that's where we get a little bit higher when it comes to that accuracy. Last year, he did also see his shadow, but it was an early start to our spring. So is this year going to be the same? I don't think so for some of the United States. I do have to show you all, there actually are some more accurate groundhogs across the United States. Staten Island Chuck, 85% accurate. There's also a ground hog called General Beauregard Lee in Georgia, 80% accurate. And Lander Lil-- this is just an honorable mention, Wyoming. It's technically not a ground hog. It's a prairie-dog statue, but it's 75% accurate. So hey, yeah, Punxsutawney Phil, he's cool and all, but there's a lot more accurate groundhogs out there if you want to listen to a groundhog. But if you want to listen to me, it's going to be cold across the northern and northeastern parts of the United States, while the heat continues to build across the Desert Southwest and across California. So it's kind of a tale of two very different weather stories. Great Lakes, Northeast dealing with temperatures anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees above average, while across the West Coast, 10 to 20 degrees above average. And this pattern is going to stay this way basically through the rest of the week and into the weekend and likely for the next 6 to 10 days. This is our long-range model outlook. Likely going to be below average. These areas in blue, New York City, Washington, Boston, below average. Is likely going to stick around through the next 6 to 10 days. But then a huge swath of the Western United States looking at above-average temperatures. So I don't know. It kind of is going to feel like spring by next week for some of you, so I don't know if Phil was right this time. Back to you.

MUGO ODIGWE:
00:02:31

Zoe, thank you so.

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