Could Trump work out a deal with Putin?

Iulia Joja joins us now from over the phone on more with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. She's a Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute. Julia, thanks for being with us. We're talking about all this. Bloomberg is reporting that presidents Trump and Putin are looking to reach a deal that would allow Russia to keep the territory it's occupied in Ukraine. Can you break down what that would look like? Is there any chance at all that Ukraine agrees to that?

We could think about a scenario in which Ukraine could be forced to agree to that because we've had two prior cases. Russia first attacked Ukraine in 2014, also in the same regions that we're talking about now, in the east, and of course, annexing illegally Crimea. And that time around, when President Obama was in power, he said that the Europeans should be leading on this. And so we had Germany and France, essentially, forcing Ukraine and Russia to sit at the negotiating table. And it's like asking the thief to sit with the victim at the same table and have the victim give up control of some of its apartment building or some of its house or, in this case, some of its country in the case of Ukraine. And in each instance, the ceasefire was violated after 2014 and before the full-scale invasion. And it was an occasion for Russia to rearm. And so we might be looking at a similar pattern this time, where the United States is saying to Ukraine, you have to accept these losses. We're lifting sanctions on Ukraine. And what will happen is that Ukraine still doesn't recognize Ukraine-- that Russia, sorry, still doesn't recognize Ukraine's independence and that it will just start rearming again. So yeah, it's indeed possible.

Well, another big question here is where this potential meeting would take place. Putin is saying the UAE could work as a location. As you know, Qatar has served as a location for negotiations between Israel and Hamas. So the question is, why have the Gulf states emerged as spots for diplomacy now?

It's unclear at this point where it will be. I heard you were saying a bit earlier that Italy is a choice as well. Normally, negotiations like this would take place in a sort of third country, neutral country. And of course, we've seen President Trump choosing the Gulf countries for his first kind of planned large-scale trip abroad. And so they've been also positioning themselves in this conflict between Russia and Ukraine as negotiators, have a history of facilitating prisoner exchanges. So it could be a possibility. The problem is indeed what can the United States, in this instance, extract from Russia that is pounding Ukraine, pounding civilian centers, and doesn't seem to be reacting to any warnings or any deadlines we've had today, a deadline expiring from President Trump, that we on the side of the United States are giving. So a meeting might be in the cards. It's unclear, though, if this will lead either to a ceasefire and, if it would lead to a ceasefire, if this ceasefire would hold. Plenty of things to figure out right there. Iulia Joja, thank you so much for being with us.

Nancy, thank you for having me.