Yes...Hot. Rain Chances? Small
Our work week starts with the same weather that showed up about two weeks ago, an early start to summer. We'll again hover so very close to the 100° mark by 4pm-5pm at DFW, likely surpass that number in Waco. We have yet to suffer a triple digit high this year, we had three of them last June (all in the last 10 days of the month however not this early). Today will mark the 14th of the last 16 days we've been in the 90's for a high. Yesterday hit 99, the hottest day of the year so far. We are expecting the same number today.
Again, like yesterday, we expect afternoon storms to develop in the daytime heating. They will be slow-moving storms that can produce large hail and frequent lightning. The eastern half of north Texas, the metroplex along I-35 toward Corsicana and Athens the more likely areas to see these short-lived storms. There is a mere 20% coverage anticipated. Below is one of the short-range forecast models that show where the best chance of convection to start this afternoon. Today this particular model has shifted the storm chances across our western half (yellow means a 50% chance, red a 70% chance). This makes me think that by 3-4pm we'll see more storms in the metro area than we have had over the last two days.
Tuesday the storm chances get even smaller, down to around 10% and I believe there is the best chance of hitting 100 degrees at DFW this week. It'll be the first time in 287 days (August 23rd, 2011).
Wednesday, Thursday and Friday the forecast sounds like a broken record, highs in the upper 90's, mostly sunny skies and storm chances under 10%. The heat continues into the weekend.
