Storms Chances Small, Heat Big
The weather pattern continues to be locked down over vast swath of the United States with north Texas being no exception. Our heat wave continues to broil, highs today reach into the triple digits for the 21st day in a row. Storm chances are small, a meager 10% and pretty much confined to our eastern and southeastern edges again. The forecast remains the same over the weekend as well with good chances of the 100° streak continuing. By next week we should be somewhere around 3rd or 4th on the list of the all-time longest streak of 100 degree days at DFW.
All that said when we include even the slightest chance of rain (10%) there is that small, small chance a storm or shower could drift over the DFW reporting site. I'd pick Sunday as the best chance over the next four days for this. Timed correctly a minor rain event could break the streak and keep temperatures in the 90's for a day. This is not an impossible occurrence during the summer months. A weak cold front from the northwest or a tropical disturbance from the southeast is sometimes enough to produce a "cooler" day. It's just that the high pressure dome currently bringing the heat wave all the way over to the east coast is so broad and dominate very little chances exists of relief (however temporary) of some thick cloud cover and/or rain slipping through.
Tonight we expect lows again around record warm range, in the low 80's (15 or the last 16 mornings at DFW lows stayed in the 80's: 6 records have been broken or tied for record warm lows during the current heat wave). Partly cloudy skies and a south wind through the night.
Saturday we'll have mostly sunny skies, a mere 10% chance of an afternoon or early evening storm in our eastern counties. Highs should reach to right around 100 degrees with a steady south, southeast wind by afternoon.
Sunday is for all practical purposes the same forecast. There is some hint that upper level winds could turn in from the northeast while winds at the surface come in from the south. Depending on the strength of the NE wind aloft we could see more in cloud cover and some rain coverage along the Red River counties. If this really cranks up then it could be the day DFW doesn't hit 100. We'll see; for the last month these "signatures" of increases rain chances have rarely panned out. Hot and dry seems to rule the day.
Below you can see how the surface high pressure keeps the rain away, this is the HPC forecast for total rainfall for the next five days. Texas is encircled by rain while baking in the 3rd worst drought on record.
The Storm Prediction Center also acknowledges the mastery of this high pressure system in keeping even the most garden variety afternoon storm from popping up over the drought area:
