Storm Watch: Day #2
There is a slight risk for severe storms again today…call it the northwestern half of North Texas. Today's severe weather scenario doesn't look to be as impressive as yesterday's for two reasons. The first, the front and dry line will be located a little farther north and west compared to yesterday. Second, the upper level energy will not be as strong. However, storms may impact North Texas in three ways.
Number 1: individual cells will pop up with the heat of the day thanks to left over outflow boundaries of cooler air that "flowed out" of last night's storms. Hence the name. These could occur over mainly the eastern half of North Texas and will be relatively weak pop up storms with a short lifespan.
Number 2: and mostly likely will be storms that develop along the stationary boundary in Oklahoma. The storms would develop into a broken line and drift southward. Lightning, damaging winds, coin sized hail and torrential rainfall will likely be the four issues with these storms.
Number 3: and not as impactful will be storms firing ahead of the dry line which is currently located just west of Lubbock. Not as impactful because of the lack of upper level energy to push the dry line and its accompanying storms as far eastward. I don't feel the dry line will migrate far enough eastward today. These storms have the potential to be large hail producers when they first become severe. As these storms press eastward they will evolve into damaging wind producers. While a large hail threat remains, the storms will likely produce coin sized hail versus golf ball or larger hailers. The areas impacted will be extreme western parts of North Texas and will likely stay well west of the Metroplex.
Tuesday Evening: storm chances will continue into the overnight hours because of additional storm development along the stationary boundary in Oklahoma. The likely impact areas for overnight storms will be the northeastern tip of North Texas – namely Bonham, Paris and Sulphur Springs. Little severe weather potential will exist.
Wednesday into Thursday will be another opportunity for storms. While the main severe weather event will be in Oklahoma, we could see strong to severe storms during the late evening and overnight hours Wednesday. Again large hail, damaging winds along with lightning and torrential rainfall will be the usual suspects. The timing looks to have the activity gone by Thursday morning's commute for the Metroplex, but we could still have ongoing rain for the southeastern third of North Texas.
