March Outlook: More Warmth

The Climate Prediction Center has posted its outlook for March.  There are dramatic signals for much warmer weather over a good chunk of the United States, including Texas.

The strong La Nina, that has more or less been in effect since the middle of 2010, is showing signs of further weakening and nearly all forecasts I have seen show us going toward a weak El Nino by the upcoming summer.  Because these ENSO signals are not showing a strong La Nina or strong El Nino...it's almost like an "anything goes" scenario for the U.S. spring and summer when it comes to precipitation.

In the meantime, the CPC March outlook calls for "equal chances" for above normal or below normal precipitation across Texas.

A lot of how March plays out will also depend on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and lingering Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation impacts.  It appears that the first part of March will be drier than normal across the southern U.S., including Texas.  If El Nino really develops stronger than predicted, we could have a wetter April and May.