Big Rains Coming

Both days of the weekend featured pop-up afternoon storms. Both days ended up with highs in the upper 80's (breaking a 10-day run of 90's at DFW) with a pair of the warmest mornings we've had so far this year (Saturday's low was 78°, Sunday's low was 76°). Another point to make, dewpoints during the afternoon stayed in the low 70's- VERY humid.

We expect slightly better coverage of afternoon storms Monday as high pressure over the deep south continues to pump Gulf moisture into north Texas FutureSky Forecast shows coverage over most of the area by afternoon. Brief heavy rain, gusty winds and lightning will be the threat from these. We are not expecting severe weather:

But the main story is the tropics. It appears the second named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane season (or at least a Tropical Depression) could form near the Yucatan:

The forecast modeling used by the National Hurricane Center shows some consensus in pushing this storm into north Texas by late Tuesday or Wednesday:

Regardless if Bill forms or where the center crosses, deep and rich tropical moisture will be brought into north Texas by this system. Heavy rain could be the result. The track and timing of the storm is still very much in question but as an example of our concern here is one forecast model (the GFS) showing 2"-3" of rain across north Texas:

The problem is that we had SO much rain in May. Rivers and lakes are still full. The Trinity River at Dallas has taken ten full days just to drop five feet. Most of the area lakes are still full (or well above) and have only dropped INCHES in the last five days.

With the Trinity and Neches Rivers also in flood downstream from us (areas of bright green) its been difficult to get all this water down to the Gulf.

The rain chances are really increasing. Keep in mind that since May 30th the DFW airport has only recorded a trace of rain (that was yesterday). Monday's outlook:

Tuesday it appears the tropical system will be coming in, perhaps late:

The heavy rains could continue into Wednesday:

Join Scott Padgett tomorrow morning on CBS11 This Morning starting at 4:30am for the latest on this potential flood threat.

The seven-day forecast shows rain chances linger into Thursday and Friday before we return to the hot and dry conditions by next weekend: