Federal Study Calls San Jose BART Extension Estimate Unrealistic
SAN JOSE (KPIX) -- The BART tunnel into downtown San Jose could face significant delays and cost overruns in a "worst case scenario," according to a scathing federal report made public Friday.
The 145-page report from the Federal Transportation Administration as part of the "Project Management Oversight Program" examined the schedules and cost estimates, and found the Valley Transportation Agency was "overly optimistic" in its projections, resulting in a "misleading risk profile."
One of the more glaring examples is the 48-foot diameter, single-bore tunnel that would stretch 4.7 miles from Berryessa Station into downtown San Jose, with a planned depth of 86 feet below the surface.
According to the report, VTA would dig the tunnel at a rate of 44 feet per day, a pace the FTA called "overly optimistic. The report authors suggest a rate of 27.73 feet per day, which would extend the project by 14 months.
VTA's current estimated completion date is 2030, with a budget of $6.9 billion. The FTA said the project completion date could be delayed to 2034, and the budget could balloon to $9.1 billion.
"I wouldn't say that it's a wake up call, but it does provide an opportunity to look at what is the worst case scenario, and gives us an opportunity to actually as I mentioned before, not that she that worst case scenario," said Bernice Alaniz, VTA's spokesperson for the project.
To better manage costs and the timeline, Alaniz said the agency would work closely with the contractor who wins the tunnel contract during the design process.
"This process has demonstrated, through other big mega projects throughout the world, is that it really assures more cost certainty. And it reduced the risks and it's a very open book collaborative effort," said Alaniz.
Adina Levin, with the non-profit transportation advocacy group Friends of Caltrain, said the FTA report is a signal for an independent peer-review of the cost and schedule.
"This is a sign that's time to do that double-checking," said Levin. "And now there's new information. So it's hard to look and say, 'I made a decision. And we need to take a second look.' That's really difficult to do. But with new information, it's really incumbent on leaders to take the new information and check to see if we're still on the right path."
VTA is expected to announce the contractor for the tunnel portion by mid spring, according to Alaniz.
