The only low-barrier homeless shelter in Stanislaus County is at risk of closure after county leaders warned they may not be able to keep funding the program past the spring.

The Access Center Emergency Shelter, known as ACES, provides 182 beds in downtown Modesto for people with mental illness, substance use struggles, or pets -- populations often turned away from traditional shelters. The facility has been run by the Salvation Army since it opened in 2019.

Major Darren Stratton of the Salvation Army said the shelter is full nearly every night.

"The shelter accommodates 182 beds, plus four additional MPD referral beds, and those beds are generally full every night," Stratton said.

But the program's $3.2 million annual budget depends heavily on state Homeless Housing, Assistance and Prevention (HHAP) funds, which were reduced in the current budget and are set to be cut in half statewide next year.

Last week, Stanislaus County issued a six-month termination notice to the Salvation Army, a legal requirement under its lease in case funding does not come through.

Assistant Executive Officer Raul Mendez said the county's plan "relied heavily on HHAP funding, obviously made up a good portion of that, because that funding is not materializing the way we anticipated. That's why we're in this situation."

County officials said they have enough money to keep the shelter operating for about six more months. Even if the state releases additional funding already earmarked, there will still be a shortfall of about $770,000. If that money doesn't arrive, the gap could grow to more than $1.8 million.

Chief Executive Officer Jody Hayes emphasized that no immediate closure is planned.

"Most people, if they're reading the headlines, they may think that there's going to be a change in the community tomorrow, and that's not the case," Hayes said. "We can't continue to use six to seven different funding sources just to balance the need every year. If that's the case, we'll be right back in the same spot one year from now."

People who rely on the shelter say losing it would be devastating.

"As a homeless person, my house burned down. I had nowhere to go. I had nothing. I was brought here. I have a roof over my head, I have meals, I have a bed," said Glenda Wilson, who has stayed at ACES for two years. "Thank God [my dog] was found and she wasn't smashed in a garbage can. Somebody just threw her away. Is that what's gonna happen to us?"

The county Board of Supervisors is scheduled to discuss the issue at its Tuesday meeting, with staff directed to pursue alternative funding and explore program changes.