NEXT Weather: Massive winter storm takes aim at Philly region
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) -- A dynamic storm has been blasting its way across the nation, producing everything from blizzard conditions in the Dakotas to tornadoes in Texas, and on Thursday, it will be our region's turn to deal with the wrath of this storm.
Depending on where in the region you reside, expect to see heavy rain, a wintry mix, gusty winds and even accumulating snowfall.
A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Carbon and Monroe Counties Thursday morning through Friday a.m. for snow and ice.
Timing
Precipitation will likely arrive just in time to snarl the Thursday morning commute, arriving around 6 a.m. just to the south and likely by 8 a.m. in the city.
Temperatures overnight into Thursday will be near freezing, so there is a concern about freezing rain and slippery conditions across the entire area Thursday morning.
In Philadelphia, Thursday morning brings our best chance to see any snow falling before a quick changeover to rain by late morning. Little to no accumulation is expected.
Rain will continue throughout the day with warmer air working its way in, pushing the rain/snow line slowly to the north throughout the afternoon.
The height of the storm will be Thursday night between 7 p.m. and midnight. This is when we'll see the heaviest rain and strongest winds, and likely the heaviest snow in the Poconos.
Impacts
Rainfall amounts region-wide will total 1 to 2 inches, enough for some localized flooding potential late Thursday night.
Winds will intensify through the day and by Thursday evening, will gust to 30 to 35 mph inland and 40 to 45 mph along the coast. This will continue through Friday morning.
Accumulating snow looks to be limited to a narrow portion of Upper Bucks and Montgomery Counties and points northward into the Lehigh Valley and the Poconos.
Currently, expect less than an inch in those far northern suburbs, 1 to 3 inches in the Lehigh Valley, and 4 to 6-plus inches in the Poconos.
Wild cards
While we are confident about the timing of the storm, the rainfall potential, the snow in the Poconos and the winds, the piece that remains difficult to forecast is the precipitation type in the far northwest suburbs (namely, the Lehigh Valley).
If the dominant precipitation type stays snow into Thursday evening, cities like Allentown and Bethlehem will be looking at several inches of snow. However, if there's a more rapid warm air intrusion leading to a quick mix and changeover, this would severely limit any accumulating snow.
With temperatures around freezing or just above, this will be a wet snow that will likely mix with sleet and rain, which will cut down accumulation potential. If the mixing gets as far north as the Poconos by Thursday afternoon, totals would also be lower there.
Ice is a concern, especially far north and west. Untreated and first-to-freeze surfaces will be hazardous for drivers.
The storm may end Friday morning with a batch of wrap-around rain or snow showers or even a snow squall.
Takeaways
This storm will impact the Thursday morning commute, the Thursday evening commute and very likely the Friday morning commute as well. Stay off the roads if possible.
In Philadelphia, slippery conditions are likely in the morning with heavy rain obscuring visibility in the evening.
Winds will be very strong at the shore with periods of heavy rain.
Snow and ice concerns are mostly focused on the Lehigh Valley and the Poconos during the daylight hours Thursday so plan accordingly.
