Zogby Debunks Religious Vote

Jewish voters are misunderstood and the "Catholic vote" doesn't exist, pollster John Zogby told a group of reporters on Wednesday.

Zogby, who spoke at the New York State Associated Press Association's spring seminar about voter moods, said that the values of voters are too conflicting to be categorized according to religion.

"The same voter who answers a poll saying that they are for a woman's right to choose, will say that killing a fetus is murder," Zogby said.

"There is no Catholic vote in the U.S. or in New York...and the Jewish vote is misunderstood to be a one issue, pro-Israel at all costs group," he said.

Zogby found that two-fifths of Jewish voters live in the suburbs and vote for moderate Republicans. Using the U.S. Senate race between Hillary Rodham Clinton and presumptive opponent New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani as an example, Zogby described them as part of "that white ethnic commuter group who likes what Rudy's done with the city," as opposed to "knee jerk liberal" urban voters.

And while recent polls show Clinton winning New York City, Giuliani still enjoys a margin over the first lady in the suburbs.

Catholics, who make up 45 percent of New York State's electorate, are similarly diverse, Zogby said. Catholic voters who attend mass regularly tend to be conservative, while those who don't go to mass are quite liberal.

"And there are more of them on the left than right," Zogby said.

Despite the lack of a consistent Jewish or Catholic voting ideology, both Clinton and Giuliani have made concerted efforts to court voters of each group.

Both have met with rabbis and Orthodox leaders in hopes of winning over New York's 12 percent Jewish vote. In February, the mayor of Jerusalem went to New York City to express support for Giuliani, and in November, the Prime Minister of Israel defended Clinton's actions in the Middle East.

Clinton had been criticized for sitting silently beside Soha Arafat, wife of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, while she accused Israelis of using poisonous gas against the Palestinians.

Catholic Giuliani is expected to win the votes of most Catholics in the state, but Clinton has won the backing of some vocal Irish-American groups, which indicates some Catholic support.

A Quinnipiac College Poll released Wednesday showed that among Jewish voters, Giuliani has lost the 10 point lead he enjoyed over Clinton on March 2. The first lady now leads by four points.

And a Marist College poll from March 29 shows Giuliani leading Clinton 55-32 among the state's white Catholic voters.

But, according to Zogby, none of that is set in stone.

"Things change," he said, explaining that polls have shown the same religious group supporting liberal former Gov. Mario Cuomo one year and conservative former Sen. Alfonse D'Amato the next.

"It's like you walk into a bar and find five guys who haven't gone to mass in 40 years. But inult the pope, and they're there with fists up."