You Bet Looks Count!

Veteran CBS News Correspondent Phil Jones met with a top academic political analyst to give you a warts-and-all look at the six Republican presidential hopefuls.

Perhaps it is about time that the voters are given their quadrennial civics reminder that the problem just may be them and not the process. But for the record, in just six weeks, voters in Iowa's caucuses will cast the first official ballots of the presidential election. So stop complaining and starting listening up.

This week in Iowa, it was round three for the six Republican wannabes. And in New Hampshire the two Democrats will be on-stage together for the second time. So far in the so-called debates, the score is no hits, no runs and no errors. Although this may be frustrating to the supporters of each candidate, it is about the best any candidate can hope for at this point in the game.

I decided to go back and review the tapes of the past debates. Who better to join me in a CBS News Washington bureau tape room, than Kathleen Hall Jamieson, the dean at the Annenberg School for Communication of the University of Pennsylvania. Dr. Jamieson is one of the best political campaign analysts in the nation.

So as those television reporters who cover other American games are always saying, "Let's go to the videotape."

There we see the pictures of the candidates being introduced and we watch their facial expressions as they hear their names mentioned by the moderators.

The front-runner, Texas Governor George W. Bush, is standing with a smile on his face. Just a moment, is that a smile or a smirk?

Jamieson also notices the lines in the Bush's face and says this is a potential problem for the candidate who seemingly has everything, especially the name and the money.

Says Jamieson: "The danger for George W. is that the idiosyncratic sense of humor, the smile, is interpreted as the frat boy smirk. He can not afford the notion that he is arrogant, aloof, glib or a smart smart-aleck."

That explanation helps those of us watching the young governor understand why he insists on repeating one old refrain again and again: "There's only one person on this stage, only one person who's been in the chief executive officer position in terms of government. That's me, the governor of the second biggest state."

Have we heard this line before? Oh yes, says Dr. Jamieson. "That was the prime claim that Ronald Reagan made when he ran for president both in 1976 and 1980; he led his speeches with that fact."

It is remarkable how far Arizona Sen. John McCain has come. Polls now show him with a chance to beat Governor Bush in New Hampshire.

Is there anything on the videotapes t help explain why Senator McCain is now a threat to Bush?

Dr. Jamieson spots the evidence: "McCain is a more spontaneous candidate than is George Bush. He's been using humor to rebut the charge that he has a temper."

And sure enough, we find an example of what McCain is doing. Because John McCain was a prisoner of war for five and a half years during the Vietnam War, he has immediate credibility on military issues. Here he goes playing on his strength and he ends up subtly dealing with those who say he has awful temper. Roll that videotape.

McCain speaks: "Recently in San Diego, at Camp Pendleton, enlisted Marines were standing in line for cartons of food. That's a disgrace. I intend to fix it. In fact, IT EVEN MAKES ME A LITTLE ANGRY."

Actually when we watch the debates, it is Alan Keyes who sounds like the angry candidate. But Dr. Jamieson thinks Keyes is the star when it comes to coining a phrase. The fact that he's a skilled radio talk-show host helps.

And for the Republican Party, the fact that he is is an African-American isn't lost either. According to Dr. Jamieson, "As a black Republican, Keyes is communicating an inclusivity in the Republican Party that is very valuable to Republicans."

Now appearing on the videotape is millionaire Steve Forbes, who was described as looking too "geeky" - that in a New Hampshire newspaper endorsement of him no less.

Forbes has all the money he needs to buy the best media consultants in the world, and yet we all sort of cringe when he smiles.

But Dr. Jamieson, quickly brings us back to what we should be remembering. "If you want to see some strange looking individuals go back across the history of the presidency. It's only recently that we would ask the question, 'Does this person look enough like a president to be the president of the United States?'"

Stop the videotape. Now there is a fellow with a real perception problem, Gary Bauer. How does that old song go? "Short people, short people, they've got no reason. . . . You've got to hold them up to say hello." For the cartoonists, the ideal ticket for 2000 would be Bill Bradley (6 feet 5 inches) and his running mate Gary Bauer (5 feet 5 inches-ish). Being about 5 feet 9-ish, I have some license to bring up the short issue.

But Dr. Jamieson says Bauer's short problem is taller than his physical being: "Bauer looks young, sounds earnest and has no elected experience, so he spends his time trying to remind you that he worked in the Reagan administration."

And finally, we're looking at Utah Senator Orrin Hatch. He's tall. And to hear him tell it, he stands head and shoulders above all the rest of them when it comes to experience and being ready to be president. Yet Hatch, with his two decades plus experience in the Senate, isn't given a ghost of a chance to get the nomination.

Still, the experienced political thinker sitting in font of the monitors with me sees some redeeming value for Senator Hatch being on-stage. And just what is that value, Dr. Jamieson? "Part of what Orrin Hatch is doing, by the way he's conducting himself in the town halls, is lending a sense of intellectual weight to the Republican field."

With so many Republican candidates and the clunky debate formats, chances of any home runs, any hits, or serious errors, are slim to none. But the big question is, after watching them on stage: Will voters decide any of one of them looks like a president?

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