Winds Of Change Blowing At U.N.

South Korea's foreign minister appears almost certain to succeed Kofi Annan as secretary-general of the United Nations, after an informal poll revealed that he had the near unanimous support of the U.N. Security Council, including its five veto-wielding members.

If Ban Ki-Moon, 67, is chosen as expected in a formal vote set for Oct. 9, his selection will have been marked by unprecedented speed, consensus and calm. In years past, secretaries-general including Annan were picked after drawn-out, often rancorous negotiations, numerous ballots and handshake deals.

An informal straw poll Monday saw the 15 U.N. Security Council nations check one of three boxes for each candidate in the secret ballot: "Encourage," "discourage," and "no opinion." For the first time, the five permanent members of the council - Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States - were given blue ballots to show whether they would veto a candidate.

Ban received 14 votes in favor and one "no opinion" ballot cast by one of the 10 rotating members of the council, while each of the other five candidates received at least one no vote from a veto-wielding member, all but dooming their chances.

"By virtue of the selection process, the U.N. Secretary General candidate is usually the least offensive to Security Council members and therefore not particularly strong or outspoken," says CBS News Foreign Affairs Analyst Pamela Falk. "The next Secretary General will have to balance some weighty international crises while he restores confidence that the U.N. can actually do something when action is necessary. Mr. Ban has made it clear that a resolution of the Middle East conflict and the North Korean standoff are priorities."

Diplomats announced that the Security Council would probably hold a formal vote to pick the eighth secretary-general in the United Nations' 60-year history on Oct. 9, making Ban's appointment almost assured. The 192-nation General Assembly must approve the council's recommendation, and traditionally does so without protest.

"It is quite clear that from today's straw poll that Minister Ban Ki-Moon is the candidate that the Security Council will recommend to the General Assembly," China's U.N. Ambassador Wang Guangya said.

The news is getting a friendly reception from another important South Korean important neighbor: Japan.

"We've been saying all along that (the next candidate) should come from Asia, so it's good," Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso told Kyodo News, a few hours before Japan took another step toward Asian solidarity – agreeing to summits with China and South Korea set for Oct. 8 and 9.

At the U.N. Monday, Ban's support solidified as the one candidate who was his biggest known threat, U.N. Undersecretary-General Shashi Tharoor of India, announced he is dropping out of the race because Ban is the obvious winner.

"It is a great honor and a huge responsibility to be secretary-general, and I wish Mr. Ban every success in that task," Tharoor said.

Ban would take the helm of an organization with some 92,000 peacekeepers around the world, a $2 billion annual operating budget and programs to fight hunger, assist refugees and slow the spread of HIV/AIDS.

He would have to counter widely held perceptions that he lacks charisma and is too closely tied to the United States. He says that, if elected, he will focus on his role as the world's top diplomat and leave the U.N.'s day-to-day operations primarily to a deputy.

Given Ban's ties to the U.S., his near-certain election would likely be seen as a victory for U.S. Ambassador John Bolton, who had pushed for the process to be wrapped up by mid-October to give Annan's successor time to prepare for the job. Annan had only two weeks when he was selected in mid-December, 1996.

Bolton said he had "a lot of respect" for Ban, though he later told reporters that he had wanted more than the seven who contended for the job. He had earlier dropped his opposition to the popular belief the next secretary-general should come from Asia because of a tradition that the post rotate among the regions of the world. The last Asian secretary-general was Burma's U Thant, who served from 1961-71.

"I wish there had been more candidates, and I wish there had been more candidates on a global basis, but it is what it is," Bolton said. "We can't make candidates. We can only make available the circumstances for them to declare themselves."

Annan, who steps down on Dec. 31, was himself a compromise candidate in 1996 who emerged late and only after the United States blocked Boutros Boutros-Ghali's bid for a second five-year term. Annan's example also shows how unpredictable the process can be: during informal polling at the time, France consistently opposed him before changing its vote at the last minute.

Tharoor received 10 favorable votes and three against. One of those negative votes was a veto. Latvia's President Vaira Vike-Freiberga was next with five in favor, six against - including two vetoes - and four undecided votes.

Thailand's Deputy Prime Minister Surakiart Sathirathai, who was the first to announce his candidacy last year, and former Afghan Finance Minister Ashraf Ghani each received four votes in favor. But Ghani had 11 votes against him including three vetoes, and Surakiart had seven no-votes, among them two vetoes.

Jordan's U.N. Ambassador Prince Zeid al Hussein, had only two votes in favor and eight against, with one veto.

The seventh candidate, Sri Lanka's Jayantha Dhanapala, a former U.N. disarmament chief, withdrew after a poor showing in the third informal poll last week.