Why Kerry Conquered The South

CBS News Political Consultant Monika L. McDermott explains why Democratic voters in Virginia and Tennessee chose John Kerry.

A broad coalition of support from traditional Democratic groups helped Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry to victory in the Virginia and Tennessee primaries, with voters continuing to point to his perceived electability as the top reason for supporting him, according to CBS News exit polls.

Kerry showed consistent strength among black voters, lower income voters, older voters, and ideologically moderate and liberal voters. And his potential nomination seemed a comfortable, and possibly comforting, idea to most primary voters.

In Tennessee, eight in ten voters expressed satisfaction at the prospect of a Kerry nomination. In Virginia, nine in ten voters rated him likely to beat President Bush in November, should he win the nomination (far more than rated second-place finisher John Edwards likely to beat Mr. Bush).

Virginia

Six in ten African-American voters in Virginia's Democratic primary threw their support to Kerry, as did well over half of union members, and women. Kerry also performed well among Virginia's older voters – pulling in 62 percent of the ballots from primary voters ages 65 and over. And he won 57 percent of the vote from Virginia's lowest income voters (those with family incomes of $15,000 or less), and 54 percent from those with family incomes of less than $50,000 a year (41 percent of all primary voters).

Ideologically, Kerry performed much better among the liberal-to-moderate wing of the party's primary voters than among conservatives. Fifty-two percent of liberals and 54 percent of moderates voted for Kerry. In contrast, he split the conservative vote with Edwards, winning only 38 percent.

As it has been in other primaries this year, Kerry's perceived electability helped him carry the day, and may have been especially important in voters' choice of him over Edwards. While 59 percent of Virginia's primary voters said they thought Edwards could beat Mr. Bush in November, a much higher 89 percent said they thought Kerry could beat Mr. Bush.

In addition, voters were most likely to point to beating Mr. Bush as the top candidate quality in their vote decision – more than one-quarter of Virginia's primary voters overall, and 40 percent of Kerry's voters, said it was the most important quality.

Voters' top concern in this primary was the economy and jobs. Forty-three percent of primary voters said they were worried that they or someone in their household would lose their job in the coming year, and 34 percent rated the national job situation as the top issue in their vote (making it the number one issue overall). Among those worried about their household's job situation, Kerry won 54 percent of the vote, and among those citing the economy as the top issue, he won half. Kerry performed even better on voters' second most important issue though, winning 62 percent of the vote from those concerned about health care.

Tennessee

In Tennessee, Kerry showed strength among groups similar to those he won in Virginia. He received nearly half of the vote from black voters. He also won half of the elderly vote (those 65 and older). While Tennessee's union voters did not demonstrate disproportionate support for Kerry, he did perform better than average among military veterans, receiving close to half of their votes. In addition, he won 45 percent of the vote from those on the bottom half of the income ladder (those making less than $50,000 a year).

Also similar to Virginia, Tennessee's voters placed a premium on the ability to beat Mr. Bush. One quarter of all voters said it was the top candidate quality in their decision-making, including 39 percent of Kerry's supporters.

As in previous contests this season, Kerry also did well among voters angry with the Bush administration – a group once thought to be Howard Dean's base of support. Among the 39 percent of Tennessee voters who described themselves as angry, Kerry won 47 percent of the vote.

Edwards And Clark

In both Virginia and Tennessee, John Edwards' second place showing was helped by support from conservative voters. He divided the conservative vote evenly with Kerry in both Virginia and Tennessee. Edwards also drew support from Protestants, as he did in last week's South Carolina primary win.

What voters continued to find most appealing about Edwards is his ability to connect with them. Twenty-nine percent of his support in Tennessee came from voters who chose him because he seems to care about people like themselves, and 26 percent of his support in Virginia came from such voters (another 26 percent came from those who supported him for his positive message).

Retired Gen. Wesley Clark had broad but shallow electoral support, keeping him in third place (despite a relative surge very late in the game) in both Tennessee and Virginia. His strengths continued to be centered on the issues of national security and the war in Iraq.

The CBS News exit polls were conducted by Edison / Mitofsky for the National Election Pool. The Virginia poll contains 1,679 Democratic primary voters, and the Tennessee poll contains 2,513. The Virginia survey has a margin of error of + 4 percentage points, and the Tennessee survey is + 3 points.

Monika L. McDermott is assistant professor of political science at the University of Connecticut, where she teaches and conducts research on voting behavior and public opinion. Before joining the University of Connecticut, McDermott worked in election polling for CBS News and the Los Angeles Times. She holds a Ph.D. in political science from the University of California, Los Angeles.

By Monika McDermott