Who Will Win At This Year's Grammys?

Mary J. Blige has a leading eight Grammy nominations, and her triumphant comeback was the feel-good story of the 2006. So it would seem as if her coronation on Grammy night is all but assured. But, as another bleached blond comeback queen can attest, leading in Grammy nominations and leading in Grammy wins are two different things.

Last year, Mariah Carey had the year's top-selling album, its most popular song, and eight Grammy nominations — and yet she left the ceremony as an afterthought instead of the main story. Whether that happens again this year is anyone's guess. But AP Entertainment Writers Nekesa Mumbi Moody and David Bauder have taken their best guesses at how the fickle Recording Academy will spread the Grammy love this Sunday.

MOODY: "Crazy" was the most adventurous, daring, irresistible song of the year, blending old psychedelic soul with rock for a spectacular song that appealed to just about everyone. It was clearly the record of the year … which is why it won't win. For the past few years, the Grammys have inexplicably rejected the obvious, radio success in favor of the "artistic" choice. That could be Rae's sweet "Records," but that would be too obscure, even for Grammy voters. So I say the Dixie Chicks' angry tome "Not Ready to Make Nice" takes it; it's still a great song, even if it didn't define 2006.

BAUDER: Well, you sold me, Nekesa. I'm picking "Crazy." Mind you, I think it's going to be a big night for the Dixie Chicks. But Gnarls Barkley was everywhere with that song, and even the Grammys can't ignore that it was a cut above the rest. Can they?

BAUDER: I can't understand the appeal of John Mayer, frankly, and I think it's because I'm male. "Continuum" doesn't deserve a nomination, let alone a win. Both the Chilis and Timberlake put out good discs, and both are deserving. Not to discount the Dixie Chicks' music, because it's good, but I think Grammy voters won't be able to resist making a political statement by voting for them.

MOODY: Chicks rule! ... at least in this category. The Grammys have made it a point to honor those outside of country music's mainstream of late, and honoring their darlings-turned-pariahs will be another way to stick to them.

MOODY: Blige may have had a triumphant comeback on the strength of "Be Without You," but I don't see it winning here. The song is decent enough, but it's really Blige's performance that takes it to the next level. "You're Beautiful" is the kind of safe, saccharine ballad the Recording Academy seems to love, but this is one of the few categories where merit seems to win out over everything else: choosing the lesser-known but lovely "Put Your Records On" may give the Academy some artistic cred.

BAUDER: Yes, it's lovely. And boring. Both "Put Your Records On" and "Be Without You" are serviceable soul music, good without being distinctive. "You're Beautiful" seems destined to be the most inappropriate wedding song since Sting's "Every Breath You Take." So, while I wince at the title "Jesus, Take the Wheel," the song is actually well-written and inspirational. That said, I think the Chicks will win.

BAUDER: Carrie Underwood's nomination here is a pretty amazing testament to what "American Idol" has become. Plus, she's a nominee with a serious chance of winning. Rae seems to have the buzz right now, though, so I'm picking her.

MOODY: Rae may have been recently anointed by St. Oprah, but even Winfrey's magic isn't enough to combat the power of "American Idol," and the stunning success of Underwood.

MOODY: It's hard to say what's more disturbing: That the Academy thinks Fergie cooing about her lovely lady lumps on "My Humps" merits an award, or that they think the vapid Pussycat Dolls are on the same level of Keane and Death Cab for Cutie. Since it's clear that artistic greatness is not paramount here, I say the trendy Fray gets the trophy for their mediocre, radio-friendly "Over My Head."

BAUDER: It could have been worse … think "London Bridge." But that's a solo award. Logic tells me you're probably right, Nekesa. I guess I've heard that Fray song too many times. But I'm going for quality — Keane at least has a spark of imagination.

MOODY: A lot of rock snobs will cringe at the name, but they'll hear John Mayer being announced as the winner for this category, because: 1) like Jessica Simpson, Grammy voters can't get enough of him; 2) his blues foray "Try!" was actually good; and 3) rock legends like Petty and Young, along with the Peppers, will split the vote and allow Mayer to sneak by.

BAUDER: Consider me a snob and, I'll bet, so are a lot of Grammy voters. Among the veterans, Petty's album was terrific, but it sank without a trace. Young got a lot of attention, but it was an uneven work. The Chilis, though, had more to offer than the Raconteurs, and I think they will be the deserved winners.

BAUDER: I love, and admire, "The River in Reverse." I just don't think it has enough juice to beat Timberlake's state-of-the-art disc.

MOODY: Justin Timberlake may have brought sexy back, but when have the Grammys ever been sexy? I hate to sound like a broken record, but ... Grammy voters love them some Johnny Mayer. "Continuum" wins.

MOODY: Blige, the queen of Grammy nominations this year, will get a deserved win here, chiefly because she won't get it in the major categories. It's become a disturbing trend: R&B and rap stars get the lion's share of the nominations, only to lose in the "mainstream" categories.

BAUDER: Dearly beloved, we are gathered here today to get through this thing called a dead career. Seriously, Prince deserves serious props for the savvy way he's brought his career back to life, capped with his masterful Super Bowl show. But not, you'll notice, capped with a Grammy. I think Nekesa's right about Mary J. Blige.

By Nekesa Mumbi Moody And David Bauder