Who Will Control Congress?

It may only be spring, but Democrats and Republicans are already plotting their campaign strategies for the fall congressional elections. CBSNews.com's Pete Brush has a preview of the battle for supremacy on the Hill.

"There is a way to prognosticate, but it's dangerous," said Amy Walter, who monitors congressional races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

Here's what people know: There don't seem to be as many competitive races as usual, and the battle to control Congress is likely to be very close.

But if you were forced to make a bet, you'd probably be safest if you wagered on the Democrats to hold the Senate and the Republicans to hold the House. Such a wager would most prudently be made, however, with house money, lest the bettor lose his or her shirt.

The logic behind such a guess would stem from the shortage of truly competitive races and from the general good stead in which our representatives currently stand as a result of the Sept. 11 attacks. Most incumbent politicians won't have too hard a time winning this November, experts say, and that translates, at least in theory, to sameness. But with the margins so slim in the House and Senate, there really is no sure thing.

"The political environment right now doesn't seem to suggest that right now would be a great time to run for Congress. Incumbents are pretty well thought of," Walter said, adding, "Think back to 1994, how volatile that political climate was … things are not that volatile right now."

Don't tell that to the party faithful. Republicans, for example, plan to vigorously go after Democratic senatorial candidates in hopes of taking back the Senate.

"We're going on offense this cycle," said Dan Allen, spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. "We have 20 seats up this year. Of all those 20, we know we have to return every single one. That said, we understand that this is the year we'll be able to go on the offense. We know there are a lot of states with vulnerable Democrats."

Which states are those? Look no further than Minnesota, where the GOP hopes it can oust Sen. Paul Wellstone, one of the Senate's most liberal members. The GOP also has an eye on South Dakota, where an at-large congressman hopes to take a seat from a young Democratic senator right in Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle's kitchen. President Bush is already involved in the South Dakota effort. The GOP also covets Missouri, where Rep. Jim Talent, a strong challenger, hopes to beat Sen. Jean Carnahan, who is new to the Senate and whose campaigning ability is untested in an evenly matched state.

For their part, Democratic Senate candidates are confident they can meet the attack by hammering home issues such as Social Security, health care, and fiscal discipline.

"Our view is that we will pick up a seat or two," said Tovah Ravitz-Meehan, who is Allen's Democratic counterpart. The Democrats see opportunities to pick up seats from the GOP in North Carolina, New Hampshire, Texas and Oregon. They also have fewer exposed seats in total: fourteen to the GOP's 20.

Jennifer Duffy, who follows Senate races for the Cook Political Report, agreed there are fewer real tossup races this time around. But she did say that Democratic Senate candidates may have trouble making the domestic issues stick, and that voters may instead favor the Republican position complete with an incumbent war president. She concludes things will go down to the wire.

"It is possible that control of the U.S. Senate will be decided by 50,000 votes or less nationally," Duffy said.

Meanwhile, Democratic House candidates – boosted by polls showing them ahead of GOP candidates generically – think they can make a run at the GOP's six-seat majority. The rub will be a dearth of opportunities this year. Of 435 total races, only about two dozen will end up being true tossups.

"The big issue … will be Social Security," said Bill Buck of the Democratic National Committee. In the wake of Enron, and the relatively unpopular GOP plan to put Social Security money in the stock market, many believe Democrats can make the issue stick this fall.

"The difference is going to be that (the Democrats) actually have something to point to," said Walter on the Social Security issue.

The Republican strategy to keep the House also looks strong. Republican candidates will hammer away on jobs, the war on terror, and try to keep it local, local, local.

"We are urging all of our candidate to run on local issues. There will be some overtones with Sept. 11 and the war on terrorism, but when it comes down to it people vote for congressmen … on local issues," said Carl Forti of the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Forti also discounted the possibility of a midterm bump for House Democrats, who would love nothing more than to play spoiler to the Bush White House going into 2004. Forti cited the 1998 midterm election, when President Clinton picked up seats to the surprise of many prognosticators. Then again, there was 1994, the year of Newt Gingrich, when Clinton has his clock cleaned.

If all that were not complicated enough, you have redistricting, by far the most Byzantine issue going into the midterms. In many instances, powerful incumbents will be pitted against each other. And in some states – notably Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada – newly created districts will create fresh opportunities.

Officials from each party spin the redistricting issue in a positive light. But overall, with Republicans controlling more state governments, the conventional wisdom is that the GOP stands a bit more to gain since state governments redraw boundary lines.

"That's why the zero-year elections are so important. Whoever controls the Statehouse … they have an awful lot of power," said Prof. Thad Beyle of the University of North Carolina.

The problem with following the redistricting saga lies in its intricacy. Words like "imputation" don't flow from the lips of the average voter too often. But "imputation," or the process of counting people who didn't respond to census counters, lies at the heart of a particularly acute spat over representation between the states of Utah and North Carolina. They are fighting over a congressional district that was decided by about 750 people.

Those most affected by redistricting will be incumbent representatives whose districts get redrawn. There are five states where incumbents from different parties were drawn out of a relatively safe seat and must battle for survival in November. There are four districts – two for each party - where incumbents battle for survival in a primary in internecine battles likely to produce big fireworks. The Ohio district of the beleaguered and volatile Rep. James Traficant was also redrawn. It should be added that the redistricting process is far from over: New York and Oklahoma, for two examples, have yet to redraw.

Overall, as spring gives way to summer, there are a few solid clues, and there is some conventional wisdom, but the number of variables is too great for any bold predictions, save this one, from Jennifer Duffy:

"It's going to be fun. It's going to be another late night."

By PETE BRUSH