Where For Art Thou, Super Delegates?

In the Democratic primary contest, delegates are king – and super delegates, well, they're like kings of kings or whatever. The contest between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton could well come down to how those 790 party leaders and bigwigs decide to go. Let's remember that these are the delegates who can throw their support wherever they want on a whim and can change their minds at a moment's notice.

The prevailing wisdom seems to be that these super delegates will most likely try to reflect the wishes of their constituents – basically, as their districts and states go, so they go. Currently, the CBS News estimate for super delegates stands at 214 for Clinton and 157 for Obama.

What if the entirety of the election was figured in and these delegates were awarded to the candidate who carried their states? CBS News' election and survey analyst Jennifer De Pinto goes behind the assumptions and takes a look at just how that might break down at the moment (including those currently uncommitted). Here is what she found:

So far, Obama has won 22 states (plus the Virgin Islands), while Clinton has won 13 (plus American Samoa).

If the super delegates from the 22 states that Obama has won backed him, he would have the support of 297 super delegates.

If the super delegates from the 13 states that Clinton has won cast their vote for her, she would have the support of 253 super delegates (omitting the delegates from Michigan and Florida, currently stuck in limbo due to party rules and infighting).

However, if the super delegates from Michigan and Florida are included in this scenario, she would get the support of another 53 super delegates, bringing her total to 306, with Obama's still at 297.

There are 245 super delegates remaining in the states that have yet to hold nominating events.

Of course, this is analysis based upon what these super delegates might do should they follow the votes in their states. Each and every one of them most likely hope their decisions are much easier by the time the process is ended.