What We're Waiting For

By CBSNews.com's Chief Political Writer David Paul Kuhn.

Ohio's 5.8 million voters will in all likelihood tip the election for either President Bush or Sen. John Kerry, as expected by Democrats and Republicans throughout the year. While the Buckeye State leans to Mr. Bush, provisional ballots in heavily Democratic precincts make a Kerry victory still possible, though not plausible.

With the exception of New Hampshire going to Democrats, the electoral map broke down akin to 2000. Of the four states on the fence, Wisconsin, Iowa and New Mexico were won by the 2000 Democratic nominee, Al Gore. Ohio was won by Mr. Bush four years ago.

In total, Mr. Bush has 252 electoral votes while Kerry trails with 242. The threshold to win the presidency is 270 electoral votes.

For Kerry to win the White House he must beat the odds in Ohio, as well as win two of three states that remain too close to estimate. Even if Mr. Bush wins only Ohio, the Republican remains in office.

Below is a breakdown of why the fate of four states holds the balance of the presidential race.

Ohio
20 Electoral Votes

With 100 percent of precincts tallied, President Bush has a 130,650 margin of victory. At last count, just past 5 a.m., there were 135,149 provisional ballots, according to Ohio Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell.

There could be upwards of 175,000 such ballots when counting is completed. Ten precincts still have not reported their provisional ballot count.

No Republican has been elected president without winning Ohio. After 5 a.m. the Bush-Cheney campaign was declaring victory in Ohio and hence the nation. But as day dawned on the East Coast, Mr. Bush had made no public comments and would not until at least 9 a.m.

Just prior to 3 a.m. the Kerry-Edwards campaign declared a "full lid," clinging their hopes to the provisional ballots to put them ahead.

Democratic advisers said they expected 75 to 80 percent of provisional ballots to break for Kerry. They believe the ballots were cast in heavily black wards of Cincinnati and Cleveland. But even if that estimate proves correct, Mr. Bush looks likely to win Ohio.

"The (Ohio) Secretary of State's Office has informed us this margin is statistically insurmountable, even after provisional ballots are considered," said Bush's Chief of Staff Andrew Card, at 5:40 a.m. "So President Bush has won the state of Ohio."

The Kerry campaign refused to concede. "We will fight for every vote," said Democratic vice presidential nominee John Edwards earlier Wednesday morning.

Provisional ballots are cast when a voter's eligibility in a precinct is uncertain, possibly due to registration or address errors. Ohio has dealt with provisional ballots before. Nearly 100,000 were cast four years ago.

State law mandates that provisional ballots will be counted beginning Nov. 13, along with overseas absentees. No provisional ballots can be verified as legitimate until noon Thursday, according to an early morning directive by the Ohio secretary of state. Overseas absentee ballots are expected to be minimal.

But if the margin of victory dwindles to a quarter of 1 percent, Ohio law mandates a recount. About three-fourths of the ballots cast in Ohio were paper, similar to those used in Florida four years ago.

If a recount is begun, each of these ballots will have to be tallied by hand. The possibility remains that Ohio is the Florida of 2004, though with one caveat: While Florida had multiple standards for verifying a valid ballot, Ohio has one statewide measure.

If Kerry loses Ohio it will not be for a lack of effort. Since securing the Democratic nomination he visited the Buckeye State more than any other, 36 times since March 2.

Wisconsin
10 Electoral Votes

With 2.8 million votes cast Kerry had a 15,000-vote lead. But with 170 precincts outstanding at about 4 a.m. a winner could not be confidently projected.

Several of the precincts are in Milwaukee, but most are in rural areas. The Wisconsin Board of Elections anticipates being able to call the final results beginning at 8 a.m.

Iowa
7 Electoral Votes

Mr. Bush led Kerry by about 13,600 votes in Iowa when four counties - Lee, Montgomery, Greene and Harrison – stopped counting at 1:30 a.m. on Wednesday. All are in rural areas.

Lee and Montgomery Counties needed to complete counting absentee ballots. Harrison and Greene Counties reported a malfunction in their counting machines, according to the Iowa secretary of state's office.

It's been 20 years since a Republican won Iowa in a presidential election. Iowa Secretary of State Chet Culver said the results would not be final for a week.

New Mexico
5 Electoral Votes
With 99 percent of the precincts reporting, Mr. Bush held a 11,636 lead over Kerry. But with 28,000 uncounted absentees in New Mexico, the state could still swing for either candidate.

In 2000, New Mexico had the slimmest margin of any state. Gore won it by 366 votes four years ago.
By David Paul Kuhn
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