Politics

What Bush Needs To Do

By CBSNews.com staff CBSNews.com staff

March 7, 2000 / 10:49 PM EST / CBS

CBS Election Analyst Linda DiVall is a veteran GOP pollster who heads her own polling firm, American Viewpoint. She was the chief pollster in Elizabeth Dole's presidential campaign.

Governor George W. Bush enjoyed a truly Super Tuesday and is now poised to wrap up the GOP nomination.

It'll probably happen next Tuesday with a six state Southern swing in his home state of Texas and his brother Governor Jeb Bush's state of Florida, as well as Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma and Tennessee.

If Bush doesn't do it by then he most certainly will in Illinois on March 21.

We'll learn a lot about Bush as we watch the moves he makes in the interim period between now and the Republican National Convention, where he most assuredly will become the GOP's standard bearer.

A closer look at the exit polling data and comments made by his leading rival, Senator John McCain, and his staff make it imperative that Bush assimilate the following:

Bush must consolidate GOP voters and welcome the McCain coalition and new voters.

Sixteen percent of Super Tuesday GOP primary voters were new voters and they voted for McCain by an impressive margin of 2-1.

It is with this group that Governor Bush has significant perceptual problems, as 49 percent have a favorable impression of him while a majority have an unfavorable opinion.

Conversely, McCain possesses a staggering 75 percent-to-23 percent favorable-unfavorable rating.

This reflects the belief that Bush has engaged in the more negative campaign than McCain. Fifty-two percent believe Bush unfairly attacked McCain while just 35 percent believe McCain attacked Bush unfairly.

These voters also mirrored McCain's belief on how to use the surplus. 37 percent named cutting taxes as their top priority, while 58 percent first want Social Security to be made whole.

Finally, these voters are not conservative ideologues as only 11 percent identify as being very conservative, 27 percent somewhat conservative, 41 percent moderate, and 20 percent liberal.

McCain continued to perform impressively with Independent voters across Super Tuesday primary states, winning in every state except Georgia while Bush won with the more traditional GOP voters in every state. Bush will need these new voters and Independent voters in order to forge a winning coalition against Al Gore in the fall.

Bush must reaffirm himself as a "uniter" not a "divider."

The religious schism that began in South Carolina with Bush's visit to Bob Jones University and the distinctly negative campaign tactics he used against McCain served to undermine Bush's perception as being a uniter, especially with those outside the Christian coalition.

While Bush's margins with the religious right were quite impressive, he failed to win a majority of the Catholic vote in Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maine, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island or Vermot.

McCain's attack against religious right leaders accentuated this schism, placing Bush in a precarious position of having to reaffirm to the Christian community that he won't abandon them while at the same time reaching out to Catholics and more secular voters in the general election.

Bush must reach out to McCain and find a place for him in this campaign and not allow any momentum to build for a third party candidacy by the Arizona senator.

Bush has to get away from process and refocus his message on being a compassionate conservative who's for limited government.

Both candidates have gotten mired down in tactics, skirmishing and inside baseball and have missed the opportunity to talk about real issues particularly their differences with the philosophical outlook of the likely Democratic Nominee, Vice President Al Gore.

The press and pundits may be interested in the behind-the-scenes-look, but voters are increasingly drawn by candidate personality, issue distinctions and providing solutions to real problems.

Bush must bolster perception that he is knowledgeable enough to be president.

In states where Bush registered impressive victories (such as Ohio), 74 percent believed that he has the knowledge to serve effectively as president.

However, in the New England states that fell to 58 percent and in New York 66 percent. By the time of the Presidential debates this fall Bush must be at parity level with Gore on this key dimension.

Bush must demonstrate that he is a national candidate with appeal north of the Mason-Dixon line, and beyond the religious right and party establishment.

Bush has to prepare for a vicious negative campaign by the Gore campaign and its allies.

CBS News Anchor Dan Rather's interview on Super Tuesday with Bob Shrum, Gore's chief media advisor, was very telling.

Shrum all but broadcast the Gore strategy: attacking Bush on the issues of gun control and abortion rights.

This, coupled with Gore's election eve attack on health insurance rates for women and children in Texas, provide a revealing glimpse that this will be a no holds barred campaign.

Bush's choice of running mate will send an important message.

Bush has any number of alternatives to explore in his choice for Veep.

Does he attempt to eliminate the gender gap and name Elizabeth Dole or New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman?

Does he attempt to overcome the deficiency with Catholic voters by naming a Catholic, pro-choice, big electoral state Governor like Pennsylvania's Tom Ridge or New York's George Pataki?

Does he instead opt for a Catholic pro-life candidate such as Governor Frank Keating of Oklahoma or Senator Connie Mack of Florida?

Or does Bush make the boldest move of all and name a person that would inspire Americans, drive a wedge into the Democratic coalition and demonstrate that he i indeed a uniter and a compassionate conservative?

Only one person fits this description - former General Colin Powell.