What Bush Faces In Asia

Hot spots like Northern Ireland and Israel grab the headlines these days, but the new president may find his time and attention diverted to Asia’s dangerous flashpoints. And there are more than a few.

NORTH KOREA

The most apparent is the divide between North and South Korea, where the United States maintains roughly 37,000 combat-ready troops. In the last year we've seen a dramatic thaw from the North, the world's last Stalinist regime, mostly because of efforts by South Korean President Kim Dae Jung who visited the North, and won this year's Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts.

And we may yet see a visit by President Clinton in his administration's waning days, if the United States can get what it calls a "dramatic breakthrough" ending North Korea's sales of missiles to countries like Iran.

Still, no one really knows what's happening inside the reclusive country where Americans fought and died in the early 1950s. Put it this way: diplomats are optimistic, but no one is talking about cutting U.S. troop strength.

TAIWAN-CHINA

China calls Taiwan a "renegade province," a bitter leftover from the 1949 Communist revolution that saw Mao take China and the losing Nationalists flee to Taiwan. China wants Taiwan back.

And as Chinese leaders say repeatedly: by force, if necessary.

For instance, a declaration of independence by Taiwan, say the Chinese, would trigger an attack. According to Chinese military planners, it would be a furious, high-tech war: advanced fighters, state-of-the-art missiles, maybe a land invasion, and might be over in hours, before America could get its forces into the area.

Some suggests that China would never attack because it risks China's emerging role in the world economy. But the Taiwan issue is an emotional one to the Chinese, so don't count on logic to trump a military option.

JAPAN

Our best buddy in Asia wants us out. The almost 50,000 U.S. troops based in Japan are a constant rub to the local population, especially on the tiny southern island of Okinawa where there are constant (if often small) anti-American demonstrations.

And in Tokyo, the city's anti-American governor wants the U.S. Air Force kicked out of its massive air base. He says make it a new airport, and send the Yanks somewhere else -- like back to the United States.

The problem for the United States: The ruling party supports strong U.S. ties, but the current prime minister is faltering. His approval rating is in the teens because neither he nor his predecessors have breathed life into a flat-on-its-back economy.

It's so bad, even the cabbies and department store clerks have lost confidence in the economy, according to a recent survey of service industry workers done by Japan's Economic Planning Agency.

There isn't much a new American president can do about Japan's economy, but with a possible slowdow in the United States, it would sure help if the world second largest economy could get back on it's feet. Alas, it looks like no economic lifeline here.

ELSEWHERE

The pot boils in other places as well.

Indonesia gave East Timor independence, and now other provinces want the same. People are being killed every day, and the world's most populous Muslim country is in danger of breaking up. That threatens vital shipping lanes throughout the area that the United States wants open, and safe.

India and Pakistan both have nuclear weapons, and a hatred for each other that remains undiminished for five decades. To date, they've only traded bullets and artillery shells. But this is the place where the world's worst nightmare could unfold: a nuclear exchange - a real nuclear war.

Asia often slips below most American's radar screens. They only notice when Japan sells too many cars or China cracks down on religious groups. But this is a huge region - both India and China now have populations exceeding one billion. Many of the democracies in Asia are young; some are fragile. There are several military dictatorships of dubious legitimacy.

The potential for mischief is great. And if there is trouble, the potential for American involvement is high.

Time for President-elect Bush - or his foreign policy team - to start studying the map of this side of the world. As the Boy Scouts will tell you, in camping or foreign policy, it is best to be prepared.

By Barry Peterson