Welcome To Mega Tuesday

Veteran CBS Evening News Anchor Dan Rather is taking the pulse of Campaign 2000. His political notebook appears regularly on CBSNews.com.

Keep in mind that big, meaningful primary days are a relatively recent development. Before the 1970s, few states even had statewide primaries or caucuses to determine their party nominees. Before then, the national nominating process was a hodgepodge that included many county and state conventions, often dictated by major political figures and power blocs. And, more often than not, state delegations went to the national nominating conventions of each party either with uncommitted delegations or with delegations committed to one candidate through the first or second ballots.

These were the days when party nominations were actually decided at the national nominating conventions, not before. Part of the thinking behind this was that it wouldn't be wise to decide on a nominee until the summer months right before the November elections.

But this old process gave minimum power to individual party members at the grassroots level, maximum power to party leaders and their machines. This was the era of the "smoke-filled back room," where deals would be cut far from the eyes of rank-and-file party members. In the 1970s, reforms began with the Democrats and spread to Republicans who also demanded that "local voters decide" caucuses and primaries.

Which led to our present system, in which statewide caucuses and primary votes are binding on delegates to the convention. Ever since this system was adopted, nominations have been decided in the winter or, at the latest, spring. The national nominating convention has, in the process, become more spectacle than crucible - a chance to get the party PR machine revved up and rally the faithful while simply ratifying the presidential nominations and, in some cases, filling the vice president slot on the ticket.

As primaries and caucuses grew into decisive powers, Southern states quickly began trying to leverage their influence by holding what amounted to a regional primary: having Southern states hold their primaries on the same day. Thus in the l980s was born the first Super Tuesday. (The phrase itself, "Super Tuesday," first came into usage in l988).

Ah, but that was yesterday. Super Tuesdays were basically Southern regional primaries. This year, Super Tuesday is a national event: California, New York, Ohio, Missouri, New England and, in the deep South, Georgia.

This is a truly national primary. We've never had that in this country.

On the Republican side, neither candidate has the resources to run saturation ads nationally or organize everywhere. There is no model for hw to wage this campaign (or cover it). These are uncharted waters and, because of that, all the more interesting and important.

There have been times in the past when California has played a make-or-break role in close races for the nomination, the state's June primary would give one candidate or the other the edge at a late point before the convention. But in more recent years California has felt left out as nominating races got wrapped up well before its June vote. So in l996 California moved its primary forward in hopes of improving its leverage.

In the current context, California remains important but has its influence diluted a bit by being mixed in with so many other states, especially the big ones of New York and Ohio. With so many delegates up for grabs at once, Tuesday's vote is the proverbial crapshoot - nobody quite knows how to handicap it.

The size, regional variety, and unpredictability of this year's new electoral creation suggest we should rename it "Mega Tuesday."

Editor's Notesize>color>

The above notwithstanding, there is a case to be made that if John McCain does not win California - at least win the popular as opposed to the delegate vote there - he may be finished. George W. Bush, on the other hand, will doubtless be severely wounded if he doesn't win California but cannot - in such a circumstance - be counted out. He has Florida and Texas, both of which he figures to win big, later on down the line.

If McCain loses California it is hard - not impossible but very hard - to write a script in which he wins the nomination.

By any reasonable analysis, after this week's votes in Virginia, North Dakota and Washington state, McCain is not out but he is the boxing equivalent of in a corner, hanging on the ropes, and desperately in need of yet another rally - such as the ones he fashioned in New Hampshire and Michigan.

He's behind on every judge's scoring card. But the next round, "Mega Tuesday" and most especially California, gives him a chance for a comeback. Probably his last chance, at least for this year's Republican nomination.

If he finally loses to Bush would he consider going Third Party? McCain has consistently said no, that he is a Republican and will remain one whatever happens.
As they say in advertising the lottery, though, "Hey, you never know."

But that kind of speculation is premature at this point. First let's see what happens in this history-making, cross-country, Mega Tuesday.

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