World

Watching For Clues At Camp David

By CBSNews.com staff CBSNews.com staff

July 19, 2000 / 3:31 PM EDT / CBS

Those following the Middle East peace talks may want to know, recall, and/or bear in mind the following points of information:

Q: What day is this?

A: Day Nine. The final day. Okay, yesterday was also called the final day, but we think today is really the final day. We think.

Q: Israel radio and the Associated Press say Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak is leaving today and/or has stopped negotiating. Is there any truth to this?

A: The White House has not been informed that anyone is planning to leave, Lockhart said.

Israeli journalists have been told to be at their hotel between 1 p.m. and 2 p.m. for baggage/security check in. But that does not mean that Barak is about to leave, according to Israeli sources. It just means the bags can go to the plane and Barak can leave late afternoon, evening or tonight or tomorrow morning - whenever the negotiations really are over. Really are over. Really are over.

How A Mideast Deal Will Look
Diplomats and sources on both sides of the Camp David talks have sketched out a rough outline of what has been achieved and what remains to be agreed on the main issues: Jerusalem, borders, settlements, refugees and security.

Q: Haven't these threats been tried before?

A: Yes, they have. At the Wye talks, then-Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered bags packed and even a helicopter to take him from the talks. President Clinton persuaded him to stay...and they got an agreement. Will history repeat itself? Stay tuned. By the way, everyone agrees these talks are much, much more difficult than the Wye talks.

Q: People say things are stuck on Jerusalem. Does that mean all the other issues - borders, security, refugees - are settled?

A: You'd think so, but you'd be wrong. Even if Jerusalem is the most difficult issue and the last one to be solved, do not be surprised if the Palestinian side raises new problems at the last, the very last minute. Especially the refugee issue.

Q: How often can these talks "break down" before they're over?

A: Any number of times. Carter administration top aide Jody Powell recalled that the talks at Camp David I "broke down" three or four times before a deal was finally reached. So, it isn't over till it's over. (No jokes here about fat ladies singing.)

QWhen will both sides agree to a deal?

A: Joel Singer, an Israeli who negotiated the Oslo Accords, says that agreements are reached when three things happen:

Each leader thinks as much as possible has been squeezed out of the other party...and each concludes "this is the best deal obtainable."
The deal reached will put the leader in a better position than he's in now.
A leader thinks he can convince his people that conditions 1 and 2 have been met.

Q: There have been very few three-way meetings between the leaders, and also very few two-ways between Barak and Palestinian President Yasser Arafat. Doesn't this mean they're not near a deal?

A: Not necessarily. At Camp David I, after the opening meeting between Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin, the two didn't meet again until the White House signing ceremony.

Last point: Remember, President Clinton is leaving for Japan in just a matter of hours. Really. Well, that's what the White House says.

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