Washington Wrap

Dotty Lynch, Douglas Kiker, Steve Chaggaris, Clothilde Ewing and Smita Kalokhe of The CBS News Political Unit have the latest from the nation's capital.

Dick Gephardt, whose campaign estimated – or, apparently, guesstimated – it would raise $4.5 million in the period between April 1 and June 30, fell $700,000 short of that goal, according to his official filing with the Federal Election Commission. As the New York Times' Adam Nagourney writes: "The lag in fundraising appeared to raise questions about the viability of Mr. Gephardt's second race for the White House." On the other hand, Gephardt does have $6.3 million in the bank, about the same amount as Howard Dean and trailing only John Kerry and John Edwards.

The hard numbers for Kerry, Edwards, Dean, Joe Lieberman and Bob Graham were all pretty much in line with their campaigns' estimates earlier this month.

For three Democratic candidates sometimes lumped together in the bottom third of the nine-pack, there were some surprising figures as well, both good and bad. Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio, who raised just $200,000 in the first quarter, took in $1.5 million in the second. Kucinich, an ardent opponent of the war against Iraq, no doubt benefited from his second-place finish in the online primary organized by the anti-war Web site MoveOn.org. In the bad news column, Rev. Al Sharpton reported raising $55,000 in the second quarter, leaving him with just $12,000 cash on hand. Carol Moseley Braun fared better in raising money - $145,000 in the second quarter – but apparently spent the lion's share of that, leaving her just $22,000 in the bank.

Of course, the Democratic figures were eclipsed by the Bush-Cheney '04 fundraising juggernaut. President Bush ended the quarter having raised $34.4 million. After a transfer of $671,000 from his 2000 account, Mr. Bush has $32.6 million cash on hand. (Note, too, that the president did not begin accepting contributions until mid-May.) Together, all nine Democrats raised roughly $30.5 million in the second quarter and have a total of $38.5 million cash on hand.

Fundraising so far:

President George W. Bush
Year to Date: $34.4 million
Second Quarter: $34.4 million
Cash on Hand: $32.6 million (includes $671,000 transfer from 2000 account)

Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass.
Year to Date: $13.3 (including $2.6 million transfer from PAC)
Second Quarter: $5.8 million
Cash on Hand: $10.9 million

Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C.
Year to Date: $11.9 million
Second Quarter: $4.5 million
Cash on Hand: $8.1 million

Howard Dean
Year to Date: $10.5 million (including $305,151 from 2002)
Second Quarter: $7.6 million
Cash on Hand: $6.4 million

Sen. Joe Lieberman, D-Conn.
Year to date: $8.1 million
Second Quarter: $5.1 million
Cash on hand: $4.0 million

Rep. Richard Gephardt, D-Mo.
Year to Date: $7.4 million (includes $2.4 million transfer from 2002 House account)
Second Quarter: $3.8 million
Cash on Hand: $6.3 million

Sen. Bob Graham, D-Fla.
Year to Date: $3.1 million
Second Quarter: $2.0 million
Cash on Hand: $1.7 million

Rep. Dennis Kucinich, D-Ohio
Year To Date: $1.7 million
Second Quarter: $1.5 million
Cash on Hand: $1.1 million

Carol Moseley Braun
Year To Date: $217,000
Second Quarter: $145,000
Cash on Hand: $22,000

Rev. Al Sharpton
Year To Date: $137,000
Second Quarter: $55,000
Cash on Hand: $12,000

To Recall Or Not To Recall: Hard to imagine, but with more than half of California voters most likely to participate in a recall vote saying they'd vote to remove Gray Davis, things are looking up for the governor. In a new Field poll released Wednesday, the split between the two sides dropped from 15 points (54 percent in favor to 39 percent opposed) to eight points (51 percent in favor to 43 percent opposed) when the sample was changed from all registered voters to voters likely to vote in the recall.

With recall organizers saying they've collected more than 1.6 million signatures from Californians who want to see Davis out of the Governor's Mansion, and making the assumption that Republicans are more likely to vote in the recall election than Democrats, the numbers seem plain wrong.

One explanation is that older voters, who tend to be more cautious and more wary of rocking the boat, are more likely to vote than their younger counterparts, explains poll director Mark DiCamillo in the California Insider.

Another possible explanation is that voters don't know who will replace Davis should he be ousted. So far, the only candidates officially running are the head of the recall effort, Republican Rep. Darrell Issa, and Green Party candidate Peter Miguel Camejo. The most popular name being thrown around by kids and politicians alike, however, is Hollywood star Arnold Schwarzenegger, who still hasn't said whether he'll join the race.

Meanwhile, according to the Deseret Morning News, Schwarzenegger's buddy, Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch, is backing a constitutional amendment that could allow the Terminator to also run for president one day. Hatch introduced the amendment last week, which would allow foreign-born people who have been naturalized U.S citizens for at least 20 years to run for president. If the amendment passed, other political stars such as Secretary of Labor Elaine L. Chao, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Mel Martinez, Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm and former Secretary of State Madeline Albright could have a shot at the White House one day.

Senate Update: Pollsters and financial directors are running the show at this point in the 2004 Senate campaigns with potential candidates from South Carolina to Alaska sizing up their opponents as the second quarter fundraising totals and new polls come in by the day.

South Carolina Democrats still aren't sure whether Sen. Fritz Hollings will run for re-election in 2004, but his campaign finance reports show he has raised $1.6 million this campaign cycle, The State reports. The total puts him above the other candidates eyeing his seat but isn't a clear sign that the 81-year-old will run again. Among the five Republican candidates, U.S. Rep. Jim DeMint raised $974,586 and Charleston developer Thomas Ravenel reported a mostly self-financed $1.02 million.

"I don't think the Republicans can go to sleep peacefully having decided that Fritz is not going to run," Democratic political consultant Bill Carrick told The State.

While North Carolina Democrats wait for Sen. John Edwards to decide whether he will run for both president and the Senate in 2004, Republican Richard Burr has built a formidable war chest to run for Edwards' seat, the News and Observer reports. Burr's $3.4 million is the largest amount collected by any North Carolina Senate campaign this early and surpasses the $712,181 Republican Sen. Lauch Faircloth raised during a comparable period in 1998. Burr's fundraising total is also causing trouble for potential Democratic candidate Erskine Bowles, who said he couldn't afford to wait much past Labor Day to make a decision about entering the race.

In Alaska, Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski is also gearing up for an expensive race since a new poll shows former Democratic Gov. Tony Knowles with a 12-point lead. The poll of 350 Alaskans, sent out by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and done by Democratic pollster Ivan Moore July 9-12, had Knowles at 52 percent and Murkowski, who was appointed by her father when he left his Senate seat to become governor, at 40 percent.

"We're all bracing ourselves for what has become known as the campaign that's going to break all records in terms of money spent and the profile of this race in Alaska history, really," Moore said.

Start Your Engines: Democrats have been trying to woo rural white males by sponsoring cars in NASCAR, but the stock car racing group has had a different agenda lately. Trying to diversify its appeal, NASCAR has reportedly been diverting six-figure checks to Rev. Jesse Jackson's Rainbow/PUSH Coalition. According to The Hill, NASCAR has been donating $250,000 each year since 2001 to the organization in an attempt to recruit black drivers.

However, after comments made by a Jackson lieutenant, calling NASCAR "the last bastion of white supremacy," some speculate that NASCAR donations may be coming to a halt. "Remarks like that tell me NASCAR hasn't paid its installment for 2003," said Peter Flaherty, president of the National Legal and Policy Center, an organization that filed a complaint with the IRS regarding Jackson's finances. Nonetheless, others insist that ceasing payment to the coalition may result in an angry backlash at next year's Daytona 500.

Hard-To-Get Invite: As the House and Senate negotiators working on the Medicare prescription drug benefit met for the first time yesterday, some of the Democrats were stewing that they weren't invited to another meeting with President Bush on the subject.

In fact, one of the negotiators, Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle, D-S.D., said he didn't know there was a meeting scheduled at the White House. When asked about it yesterday, Daschle said, "Well, it's a pretty good indication that I'm not invited, because I didn't even know about it."

The surprised reporter retorted: "You honestly didn't know about this?"

"No, I didn't," Daschle responded.

It's unclear why Daschle wasn't invited, since he voted for the bill. The folks who wound up being invited to the White House all voted for the bill and included House Speaker Dennis Hastert and Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, as well as Democratic Sens. John Breaux and Max Baucus.

Breaux and Baucus were the only two Senate Democratic conferees invited; Daschle and Sen. Jay Rockefeller, D-W.V., were not. And none of the House's Democratic conferees – Reps. Nancy Pelosi, Charles Rangel, John Dingell and Marion Berry – was asked to attend.

Eventually, the late afternoon meeting was postponed, but that didn't stop the snubbed Democrats from complaining they were left off the invite list.

"I'm a conferee and I wasn't invited to it. It's outrageous," Rockefeller said.

Pelosi spokeswoman Jennifer Crider told CBSNews.com: "Starting off with a meeting that excludes the other side of the issue is not a good start."

Republican aides directed questions about the meeting to the White House.

Quote of the Day: "Marriage is very simple - one man and one woman. Not two men or three men or four men or one man or one woman or two women and three women or three women and three men. It's not that. It's one man, one woman." --Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn., using his fingers to illustrate his point about the possibility of gay marriage being allowed in Massachusetts. (Courtesy CBS News' Bob Fuss)