On July 20, the Conference Board reported that the U.S. index of leading economic indicators rose 0.7 percent in June. This index has accurately indicated the end of every recession since its inception in 1959.
This was the third straight monthly increase, bringing the annual rate of increase over the last three months to 12.8 percent. Six of the seven recessions since 1960 ended either the month the indicator first showed a 12 percent annualized gain or a month or two beforehand.
Reading those headlines, you may think it's finally safe to jump back into the market. However, waiting for signals like that usually means you've missed much of the market's return. There are two reasons for that. The first is that much of the market's returns happen in very short bursts. The second is that the stock market itself is a leading indicator of the economy. And it tends to produce its best returns around the turning point in the economy when things are looking bleakest.
The following are market returns prior to the leading indicators beginning their turnaround in April and the returns through the end of last week, shortly after the release of the June leading indicator.
- In the first two months of the year, the S&P 500 Index fell 18.2 percent. As of July 24, the S&P 500 had produced a year-to-date return of 10.0 percent. Since the end of March, the index returned 21.6 percent.
- In the first two months of the year, the MSCI EAFE Index lost 19.0 percent. As of July 24, the MSCI EAFE had produced a year-to-date return of 15.1 percent. Thus, the return since the end of March was 46.4 percent.
- In the first two months of the year, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index lost 11.7 percent. As of July 24, the index had produced a return of 47.9 percent. Thus, the return since the end of March was 54.6 percent.