Virginia governor's race still taking shape
This article originally appeared on RealClearPolitics.
If Virginia's political history is any indication, Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli has reason to be optimistic about winning election as governor in November.
Virginia is one of only two states that choose their governors in the year following a presidential election. And in the Old Dominion's nine contests since 1977, the nominee from the party that lost the presidency the previous year has always won.
A favorite among his party's base, Cuccinelli may be well-positioned to become the latest Virginia Republican to benefit from disproportionately high turnout among the conservative rank-and-file in a non-presidential election.
Four years ago, Bob McDonnell defeated his Democratic opponent by a hefty 17-point margin during President Obama's turbulent first year in office. (Virginia law bars governors from serving consecutive terms, and so McDonnell -- like other incumbents before him -- cannot seek immediate re-election.)
Cuccinelli's expected path to the Republican nomination was cleared last week when Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling announced that he would not run for the commonwealth's highest office, citing his party's decision to hold a nominating convention, rather than a contested statewide primary, to determine its standard-bearer.
In making the announcement, Bolling acknowledged that he faced long odds trying to defeat Cuccinelli in a convention dominated by a relatively small group of right-leaning activists.
Bolling added pointedly that he was "surprised and disappointed" by Cuccinelli's decision to challenge him for the nomination and declined to rule out an independent or third-party challenge.
According to Virginia political analyst Jennifer Thompson, the potential that Bolling could launch a serious outside bid remains "very real," though it will require significant financial support from both inside and outside the state.
"I think timing is everything, and if he is contemplating getting in the race, it was smart of him not to do it at this time," Thompson said. "If you look at the interest groups in the state, I think there are business interests that will be more warming to a moderate Bolling than a conservative Cuccinelli. But really, this is going to be a national race. It's not just going to be about Virginia dollars."
As will undoubtedly be the case in New Jersey, site of the nation's other 2013 gubernatorial race, Virginia's contest is certain to be as expensive as it will be high-profile.
But in this state, a candidate's ability to raise money has not always equated with electoral success: In his bid to win the 2009 Democratic nomination, former DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe raised over $8 million but nonetheless suffered a 23-point primary trouncing at the hands of state Sen. Creigh Deeds.
Undeterred, McAuliffe is running again, and he recently benefited from some good political fortune when Democratic Sen. Mark Warner decided not to seek a return to the governor's mansion, where he resided from 2002 to 2006.
McAuliffe spent Sunday on an attention-grabbing golf outing with President Obama, former President Clinton, and former U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk. The casual gathering served as a reminder of the extent to which McAuliffe stands to benefit from his strong Washington connections, particularly his close relationship with Bill and Hillary Clinton, whose 2008 presidential campaign he chaired.
But McAuliffe's valuable personal connections could again double as his biggest vulnerability.
Though he has been a Virginia resident for over two decades, McAuliffe in 2009 faced accusations of political opportunism from his Democratic opponents -- charges that are likely to resurface in a general election setting.
"McAuliffe's biggest challenge is that in Virginia, it's not that uncommon for a person who might be a national figure to run for office, but they usually run for Senate," said longtime Virginia political commentator Bob Holsworth. "It's a tougher road for somebody with that profile to become governor. He needs to convince Virginians that he's a Virginian first and a national guy second, not a national guy that just happens to live in the state."
McAuliffe also stands to benefit from voters' familiarity with him, gained during his previous run, and he has spent the better part of the last four years traveling around the state to meet with local Democrats and other key figures.
But McAuliffe could face a primary challenge from former one-term Congressman Tom Perriello, who is reported to be considering a run.
Perriello won acclaim among Virginia Democrats for vociferously defending Obama's policies during his closely watched 2010 re-election run in the state's 5th District, a race he lost narrowly after Obama hosted a rally on his behalf four days before the election. (It was the only House race rally that the president attended that year.)
As was the case in 2009, the Virginia gubernatorial election will again be seen as a referendum of sorts on Obama, who won the state over Mitt Romney by four points en route to his re-election last month.
Years after leading the fight in Virginia against Obama's national health care law, Cuccinelli is poised to carry the torch for conservatives opposed to softening their positions despite the stinging presidential defeat.
During an annual gathering of state Republicans in Virginia Beach on Saturday, Cuccinelli provided a taste of the tack he will take.
"Conservatism is not dead. It is not old. It is not worn out. It is still alive and thriving," he said, according to The Washington Post. "We're not going to lie down. We're going to get right back up."
