U.S.-N. Korea Relations May Cool

President Clinton's decision not to visit North Korea and President-elect Bush's more skeptical take on the North will slow U.S. efforts to engage the communist nation, South Korean analysts said Friday.

Few South Korean experts believe the Bush administration will drastically change Washington's North Korea policy. But most expect some slowdown in U.S. rapprochement with the North: Republicans have traditionally taken a tougher stance on Pyongyang's Stalinist regime.

"Loss of momentum in improving U.S.-North Korea relations is inevitable," said Kim Sung-han, a North Korea expert at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security, a government think-tank.

Lee Seo-hang, an analyst at the institute, said the Bush administration "is expected to closely consult with South Korea on its North Korea policy, and engagement will remain the key word in relations with North Korea. But the pace will be slowed down and demands for reciprocity will gain strength."

There was no immediate reaction from North Korean or South Korean officials, but South Korean President Kim Dae-jung had said Wednesday that a Clinton visit to Pyongyang was unlikely. He said he hoped to visit Washington as soon as possible to consult with Bush on North Korea.

Work to defuse decades-old hostilities had gained quick momentum in the last months of Mr. Clinton's tenure, as Secretary of State Madeleine Albright visited Pyongyang and North Korea reached out to South Korea, a longtime U.S. ally.

South Korea had hoped Mr. Clinton would push the process along further by making an unprecedented visit to the world's most isolated communist state before he left office in mid-January. Such a visit would have been a watershed in Seoul's own "sunshine" policy of seeking reconciliation with the North.

But Mr. Clinton said Thursday he would not visit North Korea because he did not have enough time to make such a trip successful. He said he looked to his successor, Mr. Bush, for more progress on curbing the North's missile program to warrant more aggressive engagement with Pyongyang.

"Unsure of what he can get out of a trip, it probably would not have been easy for Mr. Clinton to decide to go," said Lee Jong-seok, a North Korea expert at Seoul's private Sejong Institute.

Together, the United States and South Korea fought a three-year war against the Chinese-backed North Koreans in the early 1950s. The war ended without a peace treaty, and since then, the United States has stationed thousands of troops in the South.

North Korea has been a focus of Mr. Clinton's foreign policy. In 1994, the two sides negotiated an agreement to freeze North Korea's nuclear program in exchange for safer reactors and energy supplies from the United States, Japan and South Korea.

More recently, U.S officials have been trying to narrow differences on limiting the North's production and export of missiles and missile echnology to pave the way for a Clinton visit to clinch a deal. Missile talks were held in Kuala Lumpur earlier this month, but no agreements were reached.

One of the reasons Mr. Clinton weighed construction of an anti-missile shield was concern over North Korea's missile strength. He deferred a decision on the defense system to Mr. Bush, who favors a far more extensive and expensive program.

On Thursday, Mr. Clinton said North Korean leader Kim Jong Il "put forward a serious proposal concerning his missile program," and the United States had discussed with Pyongyang proposals to eliminate the country's export program and halt further missile development.

"I believe the next administration will be able to consummate this agreement," he said.