Trading Places

Both Governor George W. Bush and Senator John McCain are close to the crossroads of the primary season. Super Tuesday and its many closed primaries could alter entirely the political landscape, and consequently they're both shifting, tinkering, re-tooling. The odd thing is, they're remaking themselves into what they always were. Let's start with Bush.

You know about Michigan and Arizona. Now new polls out in Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts show Bush trailing. There are concerns that Bush has found himself in a rightwing corner, from which he can't easily attract moderate voters in California and New York. And those phone calls from Pat Robertson - the alarmist ones designed to hurt McCain - may be hurting Bush just as much. Even if voters in New York or California never hear those calls, they do hear about them.

Republican strategist Scott Reed doesn't entirely buy the "pushed to the right" theory, "but I would have somebody call Pat Robertson and tell him to stop. His actions every day give the appearance that he's Bush's campaign manager, and that is harmful."

It's not Bush's policies or issues that are the problem. It's the way Bush has fought, the voters he's had to cultivate, and the whining about McCain that are sidetracking him. "The tactics and the issue of winning have now got to be thrown on the kitchen floor. He's got to go back to the basics of why he's running for president," Reed says.

Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster agrees. "It's a matter of what he emphasizes, as opposed to changing positions." That said, Bush does need to figure out how to get some more voters to come his way. Yes, many of the primaries coming up are open only to Republicans. But, as Ayres notes, "he could cut off Senator McCain's oxygen supply if he can attract more independents."

The irony is that Bush owed much of his Texas success to his ability to attract and work with independents and Democrats. His mantra, back in the fall - remember? - involved changing hearts and making the Republican party a welcoming one. Who does that sound like now?

McCain spent Thursday campaigning merrily in California, pretending to be Luke Skywalker and picking up the endorsement of San Diego's mayor, Susan Golding. But the force, in the next few weeks, might not be with him. The primary calendar is not his friend, and Republicans have voted solidly for Bush in every primary but Arizona.

McCain "clearly recognizes the magnitude (of the problem), and he's taking aggressive steps to address the situation," Ayres said. Afraid that his Michigan win spooked Republicans, McCain started wooing them that very night. He sounds like a lover with a shy date huddled in the couch corner. "You can trust me," he wheedled. "Don't fear (my campaign), join it, join it." And "I love the Republican Party. It is my home."

He's right. McCain really is a conservative, with a votig record in the Senate to prove it. Bush is right to be "amazed" that McCain has to reach out to Republican voters.

There's been an odd flip-flop; McCain started the race as a conservative, yet now has to prove to voters he really is one; Bush started as an inclusive, moderate Republican, yet now has to persuade people he's not too far right for them. Ayres thinks the situation is to be expected. "Bush followed the traditional strategy of consolidating the base and reaching out to the middle. McCain followed the maverick strategy of consolidating the middle and then convincing the base you really are one of them."

But this struggle to define yourself and find your voters is a good thing in the long run, Reed thinks. "It may feel tough now, and it is tough now, but the stronger man will come out of this.... Our team needs to be able to fight, and that's why both campaigns are going through spring training now."