They Aren't Russian To Sign Kyoto

Leading Russian climate experts poured scorn on the Kyoto Protocol on Tuesday, strengthening the hand of government critics of the agreement to curb greenhouse gas emissions, which needs Russia's ratification to go into force.

Russian scientists who spoke at the U.N. World Climate Change Conference argued that the protocol's advocates have failed to provide sound proof that the emissions the pact would limit are a key force behind global warming.

Kirill Kondratyev, a global climate expert with the Russian Academy of Sciences, said that theories linking global warming to greenhouse gas emissions ignored numerous other factors, such as the ocean's impact on climate and volcanic eruptions.

Another top Russian researcher, Valentin Dymnikov, expressed similar doubts about the impact of concentrations of carbon dioxide, the most common greenhouse gas, on climate change. He said that existing models of atmospheric change lack accuracy and aren't reliable enough.

Skeptical statements from Russian researchers will provide arguments for government officials who appear to be increasingly dubious about the Kyoto Protocol.

President Vladimir Putin raised new doubts about the fate of the agreement when he told the conference Monday that his Cabinet has not decided whether Russia should ratify it. His statement represented a step back from Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov's pledge a year ago to ratify the agreement in the "very near future," and disappointed its European and U.N. backers.

Putin's economic adviser, Andrei Illarionov, told reporters Tuesday that ratification would stall Russia's economic growth and said the government will take as much time as it needs to weigh all the consequences before making up its mind.

To go into force, the 1997 protocol must be ratified by no fewer than 55 countries, accounting for at least 55 percent of global emissions in 1990. Since the United States rejected the treaty, the minimum can be reached only with Russian ratification.

Illarionov said that the United States rejected the protocol because it considered that compliance would be too costly, but that it would be less affordable for Russia, whose economy is much smaller. He also said scientists had failed to prove the need for curbing emissions.

Russia's Natural Resources Minister Vitaly Artyukhov cited critics of the Kyoto Protocol who said that the adverse effects of greenhouse gas emissions were probably overestimated. He said vaguely that the government would take a "well-considered" approach to ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, "taking into account Russia's opportunities."

The Kyoto Protocol calls for countries to reduce their level of greenhouse-gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2012. If a country exceeds the emissions level, it could be forced to cut back industrial production.

Russia's emissions have fallen by 32 percent since 1990, largely due to the post-Soviet industrial meltdown, but they have started to rise again amid the economic revival of the past few years.

Putin's ambitious goal of doubling Russia's gross domestic product by 2010 might come into conflict with the Kyoto Protocol, which would require Russia to overhaul its industries in order to cut emissions and could slow growth.

Illarionov said that doubling the GDP will bring Russia's emissions to 104 percent of their 1990 level, conflicting with the protocol.

President Bush withdrew the United States from Kyoto citing worries that restricting carbon output could endanger jobs, and complaining that the Protocol did not require enough action from developing nations like China, which do not pollute much now but whose emissions are growing.

Since then, the Bush administration has proposed a voluntary program for reducing carbon emissions, and steered clear of the issue when possible: the EPA recently determined it lacked the authority to police carbon emissions, a recent EPA policy proposal stressed research over regulation, and a national environmental survey devoted only a few paragraphs to global warming.

When the U.S. government has addressed global warming, it has hinted at the same doubts expressed by the Russian experts, saying that both human and possible natural causes for climate change must be considered.