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The Virtual Race

Since this site covers politics, it's worth asking what impact the Internet really has on this year's race for the White House.

"The age of Internet politics is here. I think this year is going to mark the irreversible shift from television to Internet," says Phil Noble, president of PoliticsOnline.com.

Noble likens the Internet of 2000 to television in 1960. Forty years ago, TV's first presidential debates helped propel John F. Kennedy in the White House.

But Steven Schneider, editor of NetElection.org, believes an earlier year may be a more apt analogy to TV. In 1952, Dwight Eisenhower rolled out a TV campaign ad, which didn't decide that presidential race, but which showcased things to come.

"What we will see happen in 2000 is a hint and a prelude to what we will see in '04 and '08," said Schneider, whose site is analyzing political Web activity throughout this year's campaign. "I think we're just skirting the edges on what the Internet is going to do in the future."

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Online's political power got this far by digital leaps and bounds. In 1996, both major presidential campaigns launched significant sites for the first time. Two years later, Jesse Ventura said he wouldn't have been elected Minnesota's governor without the Internet, which his campaign used to rally grassroots supporters.

In Campaign 2000, political fund raising on the Internet saw a breakthrough. Democrat Bill Bradley failed to derail Al Gore, but he blazed a technological trail. Dollar Bill pushed the Federal Election Commission (FEC) to allow federal matching funds for campaign donations via credit card.

Arizona Democrats, meanwhile, held the first Internet primary, while an Arizona Republican, Sen. John McCain, too the online world by storm in his maverick presidential bid.

"McCain used the Internet incredibly well to harness his momentum after (the) New Hampshire (primary) into money and volunteers," said Noble, whose nonpartisan firm provides online fund-raising tools and analyzes electronic donations in political campaigns. "He wouldn't have lasted as long as he did without the Internet."

What about George W. Bush and Al Gore? Are they breaking any online ground in the race for the White House? Well, not really and not yet.

"We have yet to see the big innovations from them in the general election," said Noble.

Still, both campaigns maintain an active net presence, and they've even begun to respond to one another online.

The tax-cut calculator on the Bush site is a recent example. If you make less than $100,000 a year, just type in your income details and voila, you find out how much money you'd save under the Republican tax plan. The Democrats countered with their own calculator dubbed "Millionaires For Bush", where you can learn how the wealthiest Americans would fare under the Texas governor's proposal.

And remember Gore's debate challenge to Bush? It's hard not to when you visit his site. That's where you see a running clock known as "Debate Duck" that displays how long Bush "has managed to bob and weave away" from any debates.

"It's a little bit like the arms race" during the Cold War, said Noble. "One side would come up with the technology, then the other would leapfrog with new technology."

Schneider gives kudos to Bush's site for architectural detail. That may seem shocking given Gore's commitment to the Internet, not to mention his exaggeration about inventing the medium. But Schneider said while both campaign sites have helpful search engines, Bush's site is "head and shoulders" ahead of Gore's in searching for content.

Bush's donor database search is "phenomenal," he said, while Gore's site doesn't offer that utility. Sure, the vice president posted his most recent FEC report, but that data didn't indicate the source of his campaign cash.

"It would be useful and helpful if he did," added Schneider.

Candidates, he said, ought to be "transparent" online in order to be genuine to voters.

Gore's site has the upper hand in its direct appeals to campaign constituencies, said Schneider. On the site's main page, you see interactive flashes targeting women, senior citizens, African-Americans, Hispanics, Asian-Pacific Americans, gays and lesbians, environmentalists and students.

Gore's campaign "uses e-mail extensively" to keep in touch with those constituencies, Schneider added.

But back to the margins, where innovation in Internet politics often resides. If online power gave the Straight Talk Express a lift and did The Body-turned-Governor good, what will happen this fall?

Could the Reform Party's Pat Buchanan or the Green Party's Ralph Nader shake up the presidential race with a few deft Web moves? Noble doubts that, but acknowledges the medium is "custom made for insurgents and challengers and come-from-behind candidates.

"The Web and the Internet will be more important for Buchanan and Nader than for Bush and for Gore, because they're not treated by the traditional media as Gore and Bush are," he said.

Be they front-runners or fringe dwellers, however, all campaigns face a similar challenge online:

"The biggest 'digital divide' in politics is between the old politicians and consultants and activists who don't understand the Internet and the young ones who do," said Noble. "The older generation understands politics but not the Internet, while the younger generation understands the Internet but not politics."

Still, Noble added, that gap is closing.

"There's gonna be a lot of stumbling and fumbling, but there's no question that it's going to be the dominant medium."

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