Politics

The Road To The White House

By CBSNews.com staff CBSNews.com staff

March 14, 2000 / 8:19 PM EST / CBS

As George W. Bush and Al Gore cruised to victory in the Southern Tuesday primaries, CBS News exit polls in all six states gave a glimpse of what lies ahead for the two nominees in the general election. Monika McDermott of the CBS News Election and Survey Unit has the story.

Whither The Insurgents' Voters?size>color>

One of the key elements influencing the general election may be what John McCain's - and to a lesser extent Bill Bradley's - supporters choose to do. Independent voters look to become the decisive swing vote in November, and exit polls show that neither Bush nor Gore has a lock on them.

McCain voters that went to the polls on were divided over whom, if anyone, they would support in November: One third said they would support Gore, another third intend to support Bush, and over a quarter said they would support neither man.

Bradley's voters were somewhat less equivocal - they plan to go for Bush. Nearly half of Southern Tuesday's Bradley voters said that they would support Bush in a match-up with Gore. Only around a third would support Gore.

Florida Up For Grabs?size>color>

Florida has been a swing state in recent presidential elections: Its voters chose the elder Bush in 1992, but supported Clinton in 1996. And exit polling shows that the state may again provide a spirited contest, despite the fact that a Bush holds the governorship. Over 80 percent of each party's primary voters said they plan to stick with their party's nominee in the fall - and the Democrats have a slight advantage in party registration.

Opinions of the Bush brothers divided sharply along party lines. More than 80 percent of Florida's Republican primary voters said they have favorable opinions of Bush, and roughly the same number said they like his brother Jeb. But over three-fourths of Florida's Democratic primary voters said that their opinion of George W. is unfavorable, and 72 percent said the same about his younger brother.

Education And Ideologysize>color>

Bush may have ideological problems heading into the general election campaign. While he has boasted of attracting middle-of-the-road voters in his two Texas gubernatorial elections, Texas voters on Tuesday said presidential candidate George W. Bush is not the same man who ran for governor two years ago.

Nearly half of Texas' Republican primary voters said that Bush is more conservative as a presidential candidate than he was when he ran for governor in 1998, while 39 percent thought his views are the same. Among Democratic primary voters, feelings were similar: Just under half said Bush has gotten more conservative, while four in ten said he has not changed.

Another potential problem for Bush is education - an issue American voters consistently rank as one of heir top concerns. When asked whether Texas had seen significant educational reform during Bush's tenure as governor, four in ten Republican primary voters and nearly six in ten Democratic primary voters in Texas said no.

The CBS News Exit Polls were conducted among 4,683 Democratic primary voters and 5,501 Republican primary voters as they left the polls March 14, 2000, in six states: Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Texas. The margin of sampling error could be plus or minus two percentage points for both the Republican and Democratic samples.