The 2004 Democratic Follies

In her latest Political Points commentary, CBS News Senior Political Editor Dotty Lynch takes an early look at the field of 2004 Democratic presidential hopefuls, who are already off and running.

Al Gore has rolled up his sleeves and shaved off his beard. Last week he gave a second stem-winder of speech, this time on the environment, which said to many doubters that he really is thinking hard about doing it again. And at least seven other Democrats are thinking hard as well. Part of the fun of the off-off year is looking at the jockeying going on slightly under the radar screen, where mini-battles for position being fought constantly. Here are a few that political junkies are chewing over:

GORE V. LIEBERMAN
This is the race to see who really emerged standing from 2000. While Gore went into seclusion after winning the popular vote, Joe Lieberman has looked like the energizer bunny. He quickly went from being stunned that he was ever on a national ticket to becoming a seasoned national campaigner. Lieberman said originally that he wouldn't run if Gore did, but lately he's been a little less definitive. He hired former Clinton political director Craig Smith to run his PAC. Smith, who was dumped by Gore in one of the many overhauls of the 2000 campaign, is not likely to defer easily to Gore operatives. Lieberman also has a very aggressive press staff and isn't afraid to get out front on controversial issues, from Monica Lewinsky to Israel.

Gore on the other hand, leads in the polls and has done a lot of favors over the years for a lot of Democrats. Gore starts out with a decided edge but Lieberman learned some good lessons last time out and seems not too conflicted about what he'd like to do with the rest of his life.

Advantage: Gore (if he keeps on the present course). Advantage: Lieberman (if Al starts to grow the beard again).

KERRY V. EDWARDS
This is the race for handsome new face and media darling. North Carolina's John Edwards is the newer face and he has been working the national media like crazy (see this week's issue of The New Yorker). Like Bill Clinton in the 1980s, Edwards has also been working the state party circuit. So far he's keynoted or appeared at 12 state party events and dinners. Next weekend he goes to Michigan and South Carolina. While John Kerry has not been quite as active on the state party trail, he too will be in South Carolina next weekend. This son of Massachusetts sees the South as an important nut to crack and he thinks he has a secret weapon. Like John McCain, Kerry sees South Carolina as the home of many veterans and he'll play his Vietnam service to the hilt. His PAC is called Citizen Soldier and he routinely blasts political leaders who didn't serve – like Trent Lott and Tom DeLay – for attacking Democrats' patriotism. Kerry is also doing a bang-up job in fund-raising. While Edwards took in more than Kerry in the first quarter of 2002, Kerry has been building up his direct-mail lists and has raised $10 million in the last four years, ostensibly for a Senate campaign in 2002. Edwards so far has relied on big checks from fellow trial lawyers.

Advantage: Edwards (for being hotter). Advantage: Kerry (for being more polished).

GEPHARDT V. DASCHLE
This is the race to become the Bob Dole of '04. Both men say on the record that no decision on a presidential race will be made until after November. But both are surrounded by extremely ambitious aides and advisers who seem focused mainly on those West Wing offices. Gephardt has gone through this drill every four years since the mid-'80s and, to his credit, many of the same folks are again doing the delegate scenarios, fund-raising scheduling and message development. Daschle is newer to all this but it is clear he has by no means ruled out a White House run in 2004. Many believe there' a better than even chance that Daschle will run even if the Democrats retain control of the Senate, especially if they hold it by only one or two votes. For that reason, becoming the favorite whipping boy of the GOP delights those who are dreaming of a Bush-Daschle face-off in 2004.

Advantage: Daschle (for being truly tired of the Senate egos and wanting to go on to bigger things). Advantage: Gephardt (for preferring not to run and instead be Speaker of the House, but whose chances seem to be getting smaller every day.).

DEAN V. SHARPTON
This is the race to fill the Jesse Jackson/Paul Simon lefty oddball slot. Howard Dean, respected doctor and five-term governor of Vermont, has been grabbing every gay rights dinner and B-list political event turned down by the others. For example, he had the Greek Easter Parade in Manchester, N.H., all to himself in March. Al Sharpton, is well, Al Sharpton. He gets press by being outrageous and even though he's cleaned up his act since the Tawana Brawley days, he's still not exactly a mainstream candidate.

Advantage: Sharpton (for sheer nerve). Advantage: Dean (for being the only governor in the mix).

For many Democrats, jockeying against each other is a lot more fun than gaming a race against George W. Bush, who has a job rating in the mid-70s. While they all say that they remember 1991 and how all the hot wannabes bailed after Bush 41 hit 91 percent, count on several of these guys to suddenly remember that they have obligations to family or constituents if Bush continues to thrive. Except, quite possibly, Howard Dean, who'll be an out-of-work governor just like the one who won the White House in 1976, and a small-state governor like the one who decided to defy conventional wisdom and won in 1992.