Terror Threat Vs. U.S. In Iraq?

The Central Intelligence Agency has warned that terrorists based in Iraq are planning attacks against American and allied forces inside the country after any invasion, The New York Times says in a story on its Web site, prepared for its Sunday editions. The Times cites government counterterrorism officials.

The agency's previously undisclosed assessment has circulated among senior Bush administration officials. It describes both the risks of terror attacks on American forces inside Iraq if an invasion occurs and the danger of similar attacks on troops already massing in the region, the Times reports.

The assessment goes beyond the threat posed by Saddam Hussein's military forces, predicting for the first time that groups that the Bush administration has said are given haven by Saddam's government may become engaged in the war, even if Iraq's military is defeated and the government overthrown, according to the Times. The administration has said that terrorists operating inside Iraq are affiliated with al Qaeda, and that they are either tolerated by the Baghdad government or are based in parts of the country where the government exercises little control.

The conclusions are based on recently collected intelligence in the form of intercepted communications, "glimpses" of four to eight mid-level al Qaeda operatives said to have been spotted in Iraq, and an analysis of the organization's prior tactics, the Times quotes administration officials as saying.

"The Al Qaeda network is intent on attacking U.S. interests throughout Iraq, as are other extremist Islamic groups," said one official who has read the C.I.A. threat assessment.

The assessment is just one part of the array of intelligence being gathered by government agencies as part of the continuing campaign against terrorism, and is particularly important to the military right now as the United States and Britain gather their forces for a possible attack on Iraq, the Times explains.

It suggests that terrorist fighters may blend in with the Iraqi civilian population to get close enough to conduct strikes against allied troops during an invasion, officials said. Or they may attack American forces trying to stabilize Iraq after a war, the newspaper says.

Terrorists might employ conventional explosives, or they might use unspecified "toxins," according to one official who spoke with the Times, quoting from the assessment.

It is thought the attacks are being planned as "independent terrorist operations," conducted by individuals or small groups rather than controlled by Iraqi military planners, one official told the newspaper.

Presenting evidence to prove a direct connection between Al Qaeda and Iraq has been one of the most contentious aspects of the Bush administration's efforts to make its case for disarming Saddam of his weapons of mass destruction. But this assessment appears to have been prepared in order to help the military remain on guard, rather than to support the case for military action, the Times points out.

Even so, its disclosure could strengthen the administration's case that the campaign against terrorism is inextricably linked to the goal of unseating the Iraqi leader, the Times says.

Critics of the administration's stance on Iraq have questioned its assertion that the Baghdad government has tolerated or even supported the al Qaeda terrorist network headed by Osama bin Laden.

A map accompanying the C.I.A. assessment states that a cell of up to two dozen Qaeda operatives had been set up in Baghdad, echoing a charge made by Secretary of State Colin Powell in his speech on Feb. 5 at the United Nations.

The C.I.A. document identifies four Qaeda followers in Baghdad, described by one official as "second- or third-tier leaders." American officials who discussed the assessment declined to name those Qaeda lieutenants for the Times.

Smaller cells also are believed to be operating in Mosul and Erbil, in northern Iraq, according to the analysis the Times cites.

The C.I.A. report said those cells were organized by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a poisons expert and terror recruiter who in recent weeks has been identified by Powell and other administration officials as an important link between Iraq and Al Qaeda. With the recent capture of Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, Al Qaeda's chief of operations, other lieutenants — including Zarqawi — could assume a larger role, intelligence and law enforcement officials told the Times.

In his presentation to the United Nations last month, Powell said Zarqawi began recruiting terrorists shortly after he arrived in Baghdad last May. Powell said nearly two dozen militants joined Zarqawi and established a base of operations there, and that 116 suspected terrorists linked to Zarqawi had been arrested in Europe in recent weeks.

Officials in Germany, who investigated Mr. Zarqawi for more than a year, have agreed he is a terrorist, but dispute that he has a connection to Al Qaeda.

In Iraq, the C.I.A. threat assessment says, the Qaeda cells had organized freely, "but it doesn't make a big deal of Al Qaeda and Saddam," one official who has read the analysis said to the Times. "There's a confluence of interests, to be sure," the official said. "And that's dead Americans."

The threat assessment also cites intelligence reports indicating that in northern Iraq, including Kurdish areas only nominally under Mr. Hussein's control, 100 to 200 Qaeda operatives are believed to be working, along with 450 to 700 members of the extremist Islamic group Ansar al-Islam, the Times reports.

Intelligence officials said that some of the Qaeda followers in northern Iraq had fled there from the war in Afghanistan, and were not thought to be under the control of Zarqawi. Instead, they have established themselves as a loosely organized but separate force — further complicating efforts to predict their actions.

One official familiar with the report told the Times it appeared that as the military buildup around Iraq had accelerated, so had planning by Al Qaeda for attacks — which might explain a recent surge in communications by the terror network, and increased opportunities for listening in.

"In their rush to plan, they've made some mistakes," said one official.

Another said, "Intercepts have a way of being particularly solid."