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Starting Gate: Fooling With Florida

(CBS/AP/DNC)
Chalk it up to the law of unintended consequences or even simple self-destructive impulses. Whatever it is, Democrats are flirting with danger in the crucial electoral state of Florida – and now Republicans are starting to try and take advantage.

The bitter, intra-party fight flared up again over the weekend when the state Democratic Party announced it intended to go forward with a January 29th presidential primary, rebuffing threats from the DNC to strip the state of all its national convention delegates. Because the state's moved-up primary violates party rules, the DNC has played a potential high-stakes game of chicken – either select delegates at a later date, or lose them for the convention.

Just about all the Democratic presidential candidates have pledged to boycott active participation in the state's primary, although they still make frequent appearances in the state to raise money. The smart money may be on Florida Democrats eventually winning out and gaining admission for at least a large share of their delegation to the convention. But the abrasive nature of the dispute has Republicans looking at an opportunity come next November.

The Florida Republican party will send out a direct-mail piece this week, according to the AP, which seeks to lure Democrats out of their party over the issue. "The Democrats in Washington are out of touch," reads the mailer. "Now - thanks to their egos and political in-fighting - you, as a Florida Democrat, may lose your vote." Included in the mailing to targeted Democrats – a convenient form to change party registration.

The move may amount to little more than a stunt but underscores the potential danger for Democrats in a state they can't afford to ignore in the general election. Why national party leaders have taken such a hard line in a state well within their reach is not easy to understand. The early primary also violates Republican Party rules and the RNC has threatened to strip the party of half of their delegation but has not insisted on a pledge for candidates to boycott campaigning there. Should 2008 come down to Florida, Florida, Florida, Democrats don't want to end up asking themselves, why, why, why?

SEIU Setback For Edwards? The Service Employees International Union, one of the most politically dynamic labor organizations, has reportedly decided not to decide on endorsing any of the Democratic candidates – just yet. As our friend Lynn Sweet points out, the stalemate is a "big setback" for John Edwards who has courted the SEIU heavily and good news for Barack Obama. According to Sweet, the union is waiting to see which candidate emerges as the most viable alternative to Hillary Clinton.

See, Told 'Ya: In case you haven't heard, Obama was the only one of the major Democratic candidates to oppose the war in Iraq before the fact – something that contrasts to the votes cast in favor of it by all the senators in the field, even John Edwards. It's a point his campaign will hammer home next week, on the fifth anniversary of his 2002 speech opposing the then-pending war. According to The Swamp, Obama will deliver a speech on the war next Tuesday – in conjunction with rallies in 17 cities.

Around The Track

  • The AP provides a glimpse at TV ad spending up to this point, compiled by various sources: Obama has spent over $2.7 million in Iowa. Bill Richardson has spent almost $2 million and Clinton has spent over $1 million. Mitt Romney, the only GOP candidate to run TV ads, has spent over $6 million total – including about $2.7 million in Iowa and $1.7 million in New Hampshire.
  • The Washington Examiner's second day of excerpts of political reporter Bill Sammon's new book, "The Evangelical President," teases the tale of back-channel discussions between the White House and Democratic presidential candidates such as Hillary Clinton. Sammon reports President Bush is "quietly" advising the candidates, urging them to "modulate" their rhetoric on Iraq so they can "effectively prosecute the war in Iraq if elected president."

    Among the key quotes from Bush: "It's different being a candidate and being the president. … No matter who the president is, no matter what party, when they sit here in the Oval Office and seriously consider the effect of a vacuum being created in the Middle East, particularly one trying to be created by al Qaeda, they will then begin to understand the need to continue to support the young democracy."

  • John McCain is looking for a "Kerry-like revival," according to the Des Moines Register.
  • Our partners at the Politico are reporting that GQ spiked a story about infighting within Clinton's campaign. From Ben Smith: "Clinton's aides pulled a page from the book of Hollywood publicists and offered GQ a stark choice: Kill the piece, or lose access to planned celebrity coverboy Bill Clinton." Who's slated to be on GQ's December cover? Bill Clinton.
  • When Rudy Giuliani told the NRA last week that he really kind of no longer supports the lawsuit he once filed against gun manufacturers, he put himself in opposition of one of the nation's fiercest supporters of gun control – current New York City Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg.
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