3828827Springing ahead to March, the Democratic race is either drawing to a close or heading into the kind of chaos that could last all the way to the convention in Denver. Republicans, more specifically conservatives, remain uneasy about John McCain and his perceived slights to them. Some blooming questions:
The month comes in like a lion with the pivotal March 4th primaries in Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island. Hillary Clinton's campaign has laid down the markers, saying Texas and Ohio are must wins but in this campaign, things are rarely that clear. What will constitute a win for Clinton on Tuesday? Does she need clear victories or will squeakers suffice despite her delegate deficit? What if Clinton wins Texas' primary and loses the caucuses, which allocate 35 percent of the delegates? What bar does she need to clear to stay in the race financially and politically?Will we see any last-minute twists or turns before Tuesday, anything that will change any votes? We may have gotten an answer on that this morning as the Clinton campaign released a new ad raising the issue of experience to a whole new level. Here's the script: "It's 3am and your children are safe and asleep. But there's a phone in the White House and it's ringing. Something's happening in the world. Your vote will decide who answers that call. Whether it's someone who already knows the world's leaders … knows the military … someone tested and ready to lead in a dangerous world. It's 3am and your children are safe and asleep. Who do you want answering the phone?"
If Obama ends up on top, will there be any of the usual buyer's remorse or does his momentum keep his campaign chugging along? As we've already seen with McCain, the scrutiny that comes with the title "presumptive nominee" is a little hotter.McCain ruffled some of those feathers he had been trying to smooth when he was quick to denounce comments made by a talk radio host at a rally for him earlier this week. He was criticized by some conservatives for being too quick to play to type and do nothing to offend sensibilities. Former Bush guru Karl Rove might have helped his case when he agreed with McCain and urged Republicans to stay away from making an issue of Obama's middle name but the episode illustrated his tough position with conservatives. Will he ever gain their loyalty? Does it matter?Will Mike Huckabee exit the race after Tuesday even if McCain does not quite get to the magic delegate number or 1,191? Huckabee has been talking about the differences in the way news organizations count delegates but it's unclear which he will abide by. Will he wait one more week? So You're Telling Me There's A Chance: CBS News chief political consultant Marc Ambinder dives into the delegate situation on the Democratic side and sees a slim hope for Clinton to prevail – if things go just right. The chances are about the same as drawing to an inside straight, assuming a rough split in the remaining super delegates:
Under the rosiest of scenarios, it's hard to see her winning more than about 50 percent of the remaining earned delegates, even if she whips Obama in Pennsylvania and earns, say, 16 extra delegates, and drums him in Puerto Rico, where, even if she wins seventy percent of the delegates, she's still, in essence, playing catch up.If Clinton wins half of the remaining delegates – about 493 – and loses none – she still trails Obama by a net 50 or so earned delegates.
Now let's run the scenario with Florida and Michigan's delegates in play – the best iteration of that scenario, with both pledged and unpledged delegates seated and Clinton's having earned fully 60% of or more of them. She'll need at least 52.1% of remaining pledged delegates to surpass Obama.
Playing with the numbers a bit, here's how she could – in theory – accomplish this.
If Florida and Michigan's delegations are seated fully to her advantage, and if she wins in Ohio by 65% and wins in Texas by 65%, and all other percentages hold, she can win the nomination.
Clinton Backers Allege Pressure: When Rep. John Lewis made his decision to switch his super delegate vote from Clinton to Obama, he said he was following the will of his constituents in Georgia who voted overwhelmingly for Obama in that state's primary. Now, some black super delegates remaining in Clinton's camp say they are getting increased pressure from grassroots organizations to switch, the Politico reports."African-American super delegates are being targeted, harassed and threatened," Rep. Emanuel Cleaver II tells Politico. Cleaver says black super delegates are getting "nasty letters, phone calls, threats they'll get an opponent, being called an Uncle Tom. … This is the politics of the 1950s. … A lot of members are experiencing a lot of ugly stuff. They're not going to talk about it, but it's happening."
Around The Track
Michael Bloomberg may not be running but he's holding out the prospect of an endorsement of one of the major party candidates as a way to assert some pressure on them. "The candidates that are emerging, I think in all fairness, are showing some hopeful signs of understanding the need for independent leadership," Bloomberg told reporters yesterday. "I believe that the most productive role I can play is to continue pushing them in that direction." As to who might have an edge in getting that endorsement, Bloomberg said, "They're all in contention."Longtime Democratic activist Harold Ickes is playing an increasingly large and public role in the Clinton campaign these days and, in an interview with New York Observer he didn't leave much mystery as to who he thinks is responsible for the campaign's woes. "Mark Penn has run this campaign," referring to Clinton's chief strategist. "It's pretty plain for anyone to see that he has shaped the strategy of the campaign. He has called the shots."Taking shots at the media isn't just for Clinton it seems. In Texas last night, Obama complained that the press doesn't understand his campaign, according to CBS News' Maria Gavrilovic. "The level of excitement and interest I think in the political process has surprised people. Reporters don't know what to do. They have been shocked at the high turn out in every early state," Obama said at a Ft. Worth rally. "There are a lot of folks who are telling you, 'wait, wait, wait!' They, in fact they are suspicious of you enthusiasm."As of Wednesday, 584,994 Texans in the state's 15 most populous counties had voted in the Democratic primary, according to the AP in that state's early voting process.